{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e9bfe49-93a5-4372-b0a4-bcb07df34abe", "symbol": "IONR", "name": "ioneer Ltd American Depositary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.805, "architecture_energy": 60.643, "architecture_maturity": 14.844, "architecture_confidence": 79.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.08, "rotation_up": 11.57, "upward_expansion": 14.62, "deceleration": 35.4, "rotation_down": 66.83, "downward_expansion": 83.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.474, 3.696, 3.852476, 3.872409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 4.048833, "distance_from_trend": -0.135553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.360521, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.985629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.197248, "excess_performance": -0.384701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197344, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.197248, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.850394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 327861, "relative_activity": 0.449321, "balance": 1.850394, "dry_up": 0.522094, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149189, "annualized_volatility": 0.615436, "from_high_reference": -0.573171, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.048833, "fair_value_reference": 4.360521, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028364, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.004167, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.455323, "worst_return": -0.223837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164804, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.091052, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.24833, "worst_return": -0.116883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.142539, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.26439, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.010178, "worst_return": -0.179247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.168, 4.124727, 4.031952, 4.076108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.44, "volume": 357455, "typical_volume": 711217.9, "trend": 4.236833, "fair_value": 4.443201, "relative_strength": -26.867311, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.753639, "energy": 19.198312, "activity_lines": [ 3.944, 4.001545, 3.986595, 4.022527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.21, "volume": 442065, "typical_volume": 719201.25, "trend": 4.173833, "fair_value": 4.410842, "relative_strength": -30.396509, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.412304, "energy": 49.821304, "activity_lines": [ 3.68, 3.849091, 3.922762, 3.95628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.49, "volume": 396467, "typical_volume": 727113.2, "trend": 4.116167, "fair_value": 4.383726, "relative_strength": -24.691789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.345869, "energy": 55.588434, "activity_lines": [ 3.552667, 3.765091, 3.887786, 3.912161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 327861, "typical_volume": 729680.2, "trend": 4.048833, "fair_value": 4.360521, "relative_strength": -27.985629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.805317, "energy": 60.643453, "activity_lines": [ 3.474, 3.696, 3.852476, 3.872409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }