{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e9ccde2-860f-4ac1-80a3-02e52c5afbae", "symbol": "MODR", "name": "iShares Moderate Portfolio UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.914, "architecture_energy": 41.824, "architecture_maturity": 59.971, "architecture_confidence": 73.622, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.12, "rotation_up": 38.03, "upward_expansion": 61.57, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 22.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.789467, 6.797382, 6.761276, 6.690237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.855, "trend_reference": 6.609533, "distance_from_trend": 0.037138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.027889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137214, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.377281, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058687, "excess_performance": -0.112204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037138, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137214, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009644, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22442, "relative_activity": 1.548482, "balance": 0.782662, "dry_up": 1.048962, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010784, "annualized_volatility": 0.078739, "from_high_reference": -0.005224, "from_low_reference": 0.117724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.609533, "fair_value_reference": 6.027889, "structural_low": 6.176, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006345, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.010735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 5.123, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-17", "close": 5.201, "volume": 13575, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-24", "close": 5.201, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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"typical_volume": 14492.9, "trend": 6.609533, "fair_value": 6.027889, "relative_strength": -9.377281, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.913667, "energy": 41.823711, "activity_lines": [ 6.789467, 6.797382, 6.761276, 6.690237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }