{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0e9d74cd-1286-402e-9acc-ddbb6b1b7f11", "symbol": "9609", "name": "Nass Petrol Factory Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.794, "architecture_energy": 55.02, "architecture_maturity": 8.389, "architecture_confidence": 93.185, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.72, "rotation_up": 17.21, "upward_expansion": 16.24, "deceleration": 33.1, "rotation_down": 60.58, "downward_expansion": 82.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.906667, 30.530909, 31.262096, 31.694065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.98, "trend_reference": 32.582, "distance_from_trend": -0.07986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.893039, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.360673, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.313597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144406, "excess_performance": -0.112577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.360673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028596, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110172, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144406, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 676, "relative_activity": 0.55105, "balance": 0.412933, "dry_up": 0.777257, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080977, "annualized_volatility": 0.434022, "from_high_reference": -0.362128, "from_low_reference": 0.147779 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.582, "fair_value_reference": 46.893039, "structural_low": 26.120001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030283, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035892, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.06129, "worst_return": -0.088146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038052, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.018182, "worst_return": -0.018182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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30.0, "volume": 1292, "typical_volume": 1234.9, "trend": 33.137334, "fair_value": 47.2411, "relative_strength": -16.152905, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.242921, "energy": 29.761171, "activity_lines": [ 30.94, 31.238182, 31.714191, 32.145721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.0, "volume": 1213, "typical_volume": 1237.6, "trend": 32.843334, "fair_value": 47.060495, "relative_strength": -16.74457, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.802032, "energy": 50.441309, "activity_lines": [ 30.226667, 30.76, 31.436572, 31.878796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.98, "volume": 676, "typical_volume": 1226.75, "trend": 32.582, "fair_value": 46.893039, "relative_strength": -15.313597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.794229, "energy": 55.019947, "activity_lines": [ 29.906667, 30.530909, 31.262096, 31.694065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }