{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ea35fb4-fd5d-43c0-a7ac-f5231c118926", "symbol": "MACV", "name": "iShares Conservative Portfolio UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.75, "architecture_energy": 36.754, "architecture_maturity": 39.781, "architecture_confidence": 71.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.9, "rotation_up": 38.61, "upward_expansion": 63.51, "deceleration": 87.12, "rotation_down": 26.58, "downward_expansion": 15.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.3774, 5.379055, 5.362495, 5.332589 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.419, "trend_reference": 5.3005, "distance_from_trend": 0.022356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.035437, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.452013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031601, "excess_performance": -0.139291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006355, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031601, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4550, "relative_activity": 0.503146, "balance": 0.592877, "dry_up": 0.601647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008758, "annualized_volatility": 0.057502, "from_high_reference": -0.00129, "from_low_reference": 0.069891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.3005, "fair_value_reference": 5.035437, "structural_low": 5.065, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.021659, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.047102, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031018, "worst_return": 0.012299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.054623, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054623, "worst_return": 0.054623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000399, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006362, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.015241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002243, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-17", "close": 4.6345, "volume": 10500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-24", "close": 4.6455, "volume": 3246, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 4.6925, "volume": 1976, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 47.314547, "energy": 37.316177, "activity_lines": [ 5.376267, 5.377655, 5.349471, 5.321428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.339, "volume": 7892, "typical_volume": 8999.5, "trend": 5.294767, "fair_value": 5.032736, "relative_strength": -10.500812, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.787641, "energy": 24.906493, "activity_lines": [ 5.361267, 5.370982, 5.352529, 5.324574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.419, "volume": 4550, "typical_volume": 9043.1, "trend": 5.3005, "fair_value": 5.035437, "relative_strength": -11.452013, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.749802, "energy": 36.753932, "activity_lines": [ 5.3774, 5.379055, 5.362495, 5.332589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }