{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ea406d4-c03c-4068-9b31-d1ae1a90f481", "symbol": "002221", "name": "Oriental Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.41, "architecture_energy": 58.76, "architecture_maturity": 88.097, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 11.29, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 51.32, "downward_expansion": 84.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.464667, 5.498545, 6.106, 6.687484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.56, "trend_reference": 7.354667, "distance_from_trend": -0.244017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.882885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374077, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.830658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.356481, "excess_performance": -0.363881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374077, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356481, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.361203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98227829, "relative_activity": 1.001563, "balance": 0.361203, "dry_up": 1.313309, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106253, "annualized_volatility": 0.383348, "from_high_reference": -0.463838, "from_low_reference": 0.103175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.354667, "fair_value_reference": 8.882885, "structural_low": 5.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007335, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011441, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.218873, "worst_return": -0.166518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076829, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.02809, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.253695, "worst_return": -0.243989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042488, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.11866, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.194175, "worst_return": -0.200504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.769905, 7.236968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.3, "volume": 124145840, "typical_volume": 131205911.65, "trend": 7.610667, "fair_value": 8.946282, "relative_strength": -35.475563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.188473, "energy": 87.471665, "activity_lines": [ 5.375333, 5.741636, 6.566, 7.082903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.25, "volume": 166790264, "typical_volume": 118935320.75, "trend": 7.519, "fair_value": 8.925513, "relative_strength": -35.341739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.103706, "energy": 81.919889, "activity_lines": [ 5.305333, 5.576, 6.372952, 6.930602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.63, "volume": 126044831, "typical_volume": 106204901.3, "trend": 7.439333, "fair_value": 8.904359, "relative_strength": -28.570961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.552224, "energy": 64.348226, "activity_lines": [ 5.404, 5.529818, 6.233762, 6.808731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.56, "volume": 98227829, "typical_volume": 98074546.0, "trend": 7.354667, "fair_value": 8.882885, "relative_strength": -31.830658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.41037, "energy": 58.760388, "activity_lines": [ 5.464667, 5.498545, 6.106, 6.687484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }