{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0eab2eed-1bc4-4c20-aa36-367e22fd984f", "symbol": "MSTI", "name": "MADISON ETFS TRUST SHORT TERM STRATEGIC INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.851, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.211, "architecture_energy": 32.858, "architecture_maturity": 4.036, "architecture_confidence": 93.351, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.57, "rotation_up": 20.09, "upward_expansion": 7.47, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 52.66, "downward_expansion": 80.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.13542, 20.146108, 20.167872, 20.182634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.19, "trend_reference": 20.199166, "distance_from_trend": -0.000454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.100363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.624759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00364, "excess_performance": -0.129265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000454, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.737976, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3947, "relative_activity": 0.145322, "balance": 0.737976, "dry_up": 0.203274, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005602, "annualized_volatility": 0.021433, "from_high_reference": -0.009962, "from_low_reference": 0.023637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.199166, "fair_value_reference": 19.100363, "structural_low": 19.990807, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.047518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002898, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.148853, "energy": 51.827726, "activity_lines": [ 20.113567, 20.140707, 20.167014, 20.183169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.19, "volume": 3947, "typical_volume": 27160.45, "trend": 20.199166, "fair_value": 19.100363, "relative_strength": -10.624759, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.210666, "energy": 32.857539, "activity_lines": [ 20.13542, 20.146108, 20.167872, 20.182634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }