{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0eb19aba-a087-48cf-b0c7-9d682c63228d", "symbol": "IEV", "name": "ISHARES TRUST EUROPE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.998, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.788, "architecture_energy": 73.132, "architecture_maturity": 33.695, "architecture_confidence": 76.952, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 67.66, "upward_expansion": 88.47, "deceleration": 46.48, "rotation_down": 16.1, "downward_expansion": 15.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.137333, 73.463512, 72.450379, 71.557636 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 75.81, "trend_reference": 70.772309, "distance_from_trend": 0.071182, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.514031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318113, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.796215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063785, "excess_performance": -0.061839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071182, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033055, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.318113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022996, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.90249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 685963, "relative_activity": 1.027566, "balance": 0.90249, "dry_up": 0.894182, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024303, "annualized_volatility": 0.182297, "from_high_reference": -0.003418, "from_low_reference": 0.243084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.772309, "fair_value_reference": 57.514031, "structural_low": 63.846072, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.009126, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.004811, "regime_survival": 0.694444, "best_return": 0.09406, "worst_return": -0.073295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.034639, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.036071, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104438, "worst_return": -0.107936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016263, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.046232, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.14099, "worst_return": -0.031958, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 569510, "typical_volume": 679719.9, "trend": 70.547087, "fair_value": 57.326091, "relative_strength": 0.635535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.157093, "energy": 53.429641, "activity_lines": [ 73.262667, 72.858896, 71.971615, 71.218093 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.81, "volume": 685963, "typical_volume": 667560.8, "trend": 70.772309, "fair_value": 57.514031, "relative_strength": -0.796215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.788235, "energy": 73.131945, "activity_lines": [ 74.137333, 73.463512, 72.450379, 71.557636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }