{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0eb51cb0-2fe7-4218-8477-a2b78aa553ad", "symbol": "8060", "name": "Walaa Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.243, "architecture_energy": 11.834, "architecture_maturity": 39.104, "architecture_confidence": 68.043, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.47, "rotation_up": 35.11, "upward_expansion": 29.51, "deceleration": 59.74, "rotation_down": 34.63, "downward_expansion": 27.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.217333, 10.245818, 10.146905, 10.063742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.95, "trend_reference": 10.121333, "distance_from_trend": 0.081873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.570489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376796, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.048775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021455, "excess_performance": 0.053285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037072, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065435, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030488, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211373, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021455, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.949389, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6623946, "relative_activity": 2.698488, "balance": 0.949389, "dry_up": 1.60179, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060204, "annualized_volatility": 0.32094, "from_high_reference": -0.172961, "from_low_reference": 0.254296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.121333, "fair_value_reference": 17.570489, "structural_low": 8.73, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018649, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.027823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205784, "worst_return": -0.089069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.127955, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.143133, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.373126, "worst_return": -0.036437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.187413, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.25501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.367773, "worst_return": -0.059379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.053954, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.074061, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133603, "worst_return": -0.025696, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008565, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176744, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138554, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191489, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.454545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1083, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 18.66, "volume": 4513935, "typical_volume": 1447500.45, "trend": 15.327333, "fair_value": 18.387244, "relative_strength": 23.380487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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-7.098917, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.837798, "energy": 17.203745, "activity_lines": [ 10.328, 10.251818, 10.031667, 10.050645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.34, "volume": 2338176, "typical_volume": 2167440.85, "trend": 10.133333, "fair_value": 17.718566, "relative_strength": -3.420948, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.606537, "energy": 17.469661, "activity_lines": [ 10.312667, 10.281455, 10.078571, 10.062989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.92, "volume": 1797192, "typical_volume": 2069838.3, "trend": 10.122, "fair_value": 17.66895, "relative_strength": -7.297349, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.903703, "energy": 4.596521, "activity_lines": [ 10.175333, 10.230364, 10.084286, 10.049226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.49, "volume": 4968267, "typical_volume": 2149941.05, "trend": 10.093, "fair_value": 17.617604, "relative_strength": -8.859902, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.458961, "energy": 17.875182, "activity_lines": [ 9.928, 10.101818, 10.047, 10.008452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.95, "volume": 6623946, "typical_volume": 2454688.25, "trend": 10.121333, "fair_value": 17.570489, "relative_strength": 3.048775, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.243044, "energy": 11.834207, "activity_lines": [ 10.217333, 10.245818, 10.146905, 10.063742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }