{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0eb781a6-3a2a-4a9f-98d4-41379e8137a8", "symbol": "300111", "name": "Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.102, "architecture_energy": 56.355, "architecture_maturity": 97.686, "architecture_confidence": 90.799, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.71, "rotation_up": 26.47, "upward_expansion": 9.5, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 51.46, "downward_expansion": 80.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.85, 2.898, 3.162238, 3.424989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.04, "trend_reference": 3.830667, "distance_from_trend": -0.206404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.565064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.550086, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.324444, "excess_performance": -0.331844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285967, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187887950, "relative_activity": 1.041917, "balance": 0.328441, "dry_up": 1.379567, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108553, "annualized_volatility": 0.389366, "from_high_reference": -0.70428, "from_low_reference": 0.206349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.830667, "fair_value_reference": 3.565064, "structural_low": 2.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.026007, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.031959, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.154122, "worst_return": -0.199507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.045775, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.070879, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.550661, "worst_return": -0.269767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07687, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.240449, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.710345, "worst_return": -0.008734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.132867, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.313602, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.522124, "worst_return": -0.228669, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.008734, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145161, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056716, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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-48.23051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.919689, "energy": 69.116992, "activity_lines": [ 2.995333, 3.144909, 3.459524, 3.765763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.79, "volume": 377471274, "typical_volume": 179616223.3, "trend": 4.202333, "fair_value": 3.568782, "relative_strength": -44.985039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.289675, "energy": 68.762297, "activity_lines": [ 2.918, 3.045455, 3.37019, 3.665505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.61, "volume": 230850754, "typical_volume": 176496440.6, "trend": 4.052, "fair_value": 3.565962, "relative_strength": -48.458275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.290012, "energy": 69.560313, "activity_lines": [ 2.804, 2.936364, 3.272571, 3.562774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.81, "volume": 198894663, "typical_volume": 178171573.75, "trend": 3.933667, "fair_value": 3.564679, "relative_strength": -43.404209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.246008, "energy": 63.852819, "activity_lines": [ 2.788, 2.888909, 3.202905, 3.482645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.04, "volume": 187887950, "typical_volume": 180329163.95, "trend": 3.830667, "fair_value": 3.565064, "relative_strength": -41.550086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.101856, "energy": 56.355154, "activity_lines": [ 2.85, 2.898, 3.162238, 3.424989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }