{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ebc969a-0c06-46be-8c3d-ce8f02a3fedf", "symbol": "OBE", "name": "Obsidian Energy Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.645, "architecture_energy": 24.883, "architecture_maturity": 28.117, "architecture_confidence": 70.164, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.64, "rotation_up": 52.83, "upward_expansion": 60.59, "deceleration": 67.76, "rotation_down": 13.36, "downward_expansion": 17.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.222667, 13.636545, 14.400095, 14.126753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.87, "trend_reference": 13.308333, "distance_from_trend": 0.042204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.706987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.428868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.903256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.349222, "excess_performance": 0.228801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.428868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.417061, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109033, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.491742, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.349222, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.697386, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2156600, "relative_activity": 1.262787, "balance": 1.697386, "dry_up": 1.20009, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123898, "annualized_volatility": 0.672419, "from_high_reference": -0.300555, "from_low_reference": 0.82021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.308333, "fair_value_reference": 9.706987, "structural_low": 9.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.042184, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.040553, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.209466, "worst_return": -0.186462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.165119, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.16631, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.549806, "worst_return": -0.306632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.732212, "worst_return": -0.134409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011113, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.191376, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093902, "worst_return": -0.116129, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101968, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04927, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095287, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018828, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.223171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.569106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.19, "volume": 708000, "typical_volume": 1145205.0, "trend": 8.645667, "fair_value": 6.420385, "relative_strength": -1.667647, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", 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"relative_strength": -2.80319, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.773433, "energy": 31.532745, "activity_lines": [ 12.658, 14.133455, 14.597619, 13.756452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.02, "volume": 2023300, "typical_volume": 1658585.0, "trend": 12.501, "fair_value": 9.573462, "relative_strength": 1.623258, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.194386, "energy": 39.131886, "activity_lines": [ 12.18, 13.521818, 14.403429, 13.733462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.49, "volume": 1977400, "typical_volume": 1695865.0, "trend": 12.693, "fair_value": 9.605256, "relative_strength": 13.498635, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.937988, "energy": 34.120192, "activity_lines": [ 12.42, 13.309091, 14.344, 13.797269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.93, "volume": 2178900, "typical_volume": 1693870.0, "trend": 12.918, "fair_value": 9.642564, "relative_strength": 24.312839, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.243122, "energy": 17.536689, "activity_lines": [ 13.272, 13.421818, 14.408524, 13.941591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.05, "volume": 1885200, "typical_volume": 1699225.0, "trend": 13.132, "fair_value": 9.679038, "relative_strength": 24.942326, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.294717, "energy": 19.646956, "activity_lines": [ 14.061333, 13.621091, 14.468524, 14.07914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.87, "volume": 2156600, "typical_volume": 1707810.0, "trend": 13.308333, "fair_value": 9.706987, "relative_strength": 10.903256, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.645473, "energy": 24.88308, "activity_lines": [ 14.222667, 13.636545, 14.400095, 14.126753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }