{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ebd6f15-e8d1-4f42-a3e8-b8e39b70caf5", "symbol": "ALVAZ", "name": "Vaziva Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.451, "architecture_energy": 82.705, "architecture_maturity": 92.097, "architecture_confidence": 92.522, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.28, "rotation_up": 11.85, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 74.91, "downward_expansion": 96.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.2, 32.094545, 33.222857, 34.295484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.200001, "trend_reference": 35.706667, "distance_from_trend": -0.126214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.766666, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.734397, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235294, "excess_performance": -0.288605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450715, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 639, "relative_activity": 0.649489, "balance": 0.450715, "dry_up": 0.765361, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04931, "annualized_volatility": 0.266437, "from_high_reference": -0.360656, "from_low_reference": 0.061225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.706667, "fair_value_reference": 37.766666, "structural_low": 29.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.001425, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.136585, "worst_return": -0.141463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.047706, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.047323, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.180488, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049008, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071183, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.004878, "worst_return": -0.093137, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.235294, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 69, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.649941, "energy": 54.511556, "activity_lines": [ 33.653333, 34.229091, 35.468571, 36.23957 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 34.0, "volume": 246, "typical_volume": 1174.2, "trend": 36.873333, "fair_value": 37.425641, "relative_strength": -18.557119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.255499, "energy": 44.51979, "activity_lines": [ 33.8, 34.054545, 35.232381, 36.03914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.599998, "volume": 134, "typical_volume": 1101.15, "trend": 36.68, "fair_value": 37.492308, "relative_strength": -19.981731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.097161, "energy": 42.548381, "activity_lines": [ 33.746666, 33.858181, 34.990476, 35.827957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.0, "volume": 615, "typical_volume": 1051.1, "trend": 36.526666, "fair_value": 37.56282, "relative_strength": -19.132082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.322351, "energy": 42.713555, "activity_lines": [ 33.52, 33.632727, 34.712381, 35.590537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.0, "volume": 370, "typical_volume": 1005.25, "trend": 36.426666, "fair_value": 37.632051, "relative_strength": -18.415648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.127557, "energy": 44.510849, "activity_lines": [ 33.333333, 33.48, 34.457143, 35.363011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.0, "volume": 1224, "typical_volume": 1014.0, "trend": 36.286666, "fair_value": 37.680769, "relative_strength": -22.894344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.677228, "energy": 69.904151, "activity_lines": [ 32.48, 33.0, 34.04, 35.012903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.0, "volume": 779, "typical_volume": 992.15, "trend": 36.033333, "fair_value": 37.721795, "relative_strength": -25.726952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.949662, "energy": 84.322996, "activity_lines": [ 31.506667, 32.410909, 33.555238, 34.607312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 639, "typical_volume": 983.85, "trend": 35.706667, "fair_value": 37.766666, "relative_strength": -23.734397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.451343, "energy": 82.704726, "activity_lines": [ 31.2, 32.094545, 33.222857, 34.295484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }