{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ebf47e3-b95b-4ca1-ada6-e26cf2a1e989", "symbol": "HAF", "name": "Global X Active Global Fixed Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.451, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.336, "architecture_energy": 29.474, "architecture_maturity": 56.274, "architecture_confidence": 66.114, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.46, "rotation_up": 17.26, "upward_expansion": 19.34, "deceleration": 55.91, "rotation_down": 59.25, "downward_expansion": 42.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.864512, 6.896135, 6.913069, 6.904133 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.88, "trend_reference": 6.890244, "distance_from_trend": -0.001487, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.630837, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.067841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004239, "excess_performance": -0.116183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004239, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.218045, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19500, "relative_activity": 0.502318, "balance": 0.218045, "dry_up": 2.462004, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010877, "annualized_volatility": 0.054521, "from_high_reference": -0.016251, "from_low_reference": 0.026985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.890244, "fair_value_reference": 6.630837, "structural_low": 6.74, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.000265, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.009619, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.034783, "worst_return": -0.031385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001467, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.038309, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.040677, "worst_return": -0.022105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01667, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.039947, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.079054, "worst_return": -0.009943, 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"typical_volume": 24800.0, "trend": 6.879945, "fair_value": 6.609595, "relative_strength": -9.593647, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.093914, "energy": 28.756589, "activity_lines": [ 6.953325, 6.949912, 6.929269, 6.91002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.882926, "volume": 74000, "typical_volume": 27020.0, "trend": 6.883465, "fair_value": 6.615138, "relative_strength": -9.591389, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.759228, "energy": 13.650394, "activity_lines": [ 6.928187, 6.938595, 6.927127, 6.910212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.853, "volume": 48900, "typical_volume": 28250.0, "trend": 6.885661, "fair_value": 6.620197, "relative_strength": -9.826772, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.646379, "energy": 13.447495, "activity_lines": [ 6.899621, 6.923277, 6.922292, 6.908247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.83, "volume": 239900, "typical_volume": 38825.0, "trend": 6.8881, "fair_value": 6.625384, "relative_strength": -9.289276, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.436989, "energy": 28.702528, "activity_lines": [ 6.868609, 6.90432, 6.915331, 6.904656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.88, "volume": 19500, "typical_volume": 38820.0, "trend": 6.890244, "fair_value": 6.630837, "relative_strength": -11.067841, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.336403, "energy": 29.473642, "activity_lines": [ 6.864512, 6.896135, 6.913069, 6.904133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }