{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ec60a6b-47ac-45a5-9dd6-cf4d08309289", "symbol": "688130", "name": "Hangzhou SDIC Microelectronics Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.702, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.322, "architecture_energy": 52.956, "architecture_maturity": 10.493, "architecture_confidence": 69.839, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.93, "rotation_up": 21.54, "upward_expansion": 22.44, "deceleration": 40.16, "rotation_down": 65.51, "downward_expansion": 54.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.142667, 22.254364, 23.880191, 23.911247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.950001, "trend_reference": 23.889, "distance_from_trend": -0.081167, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.018486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.304516, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097822, "excess_performance": -0.054618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173588, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.109865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11500092, "relative_activity": 0.928004, "balance": 1.109865, "dry_up": 1.314139, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179078, "annualized_volatility": 0.720522, "from_high_reference": -0.298722, "from_low_reference": 0.380503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.889, "fair_value_reference": 21.018486, "structural_low": 15.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"trend": 24.068, "fair_value": 21.111048, "relative_strength": -15.031125, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.943042, "energy": 7.619277, "activity_lines": [ 24.564667, 25.380182, 25.309762, 24.809161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.59, "volume": 18222439, "typical_volume": 11983839.0, "trend": 23.944333, "fair_value": 21.07063, "relative_strength": -23.001809, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.922856, "energy": 34.21774, "activity_lines": [ 21.882667, 23.814364, 24.641952, 24.391226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.41, "volume": 10926582, "typical_volume": 12124386.6, "trend": 23.855333, "fair_value": 21.030148, "relative_strength": -19.415207, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.008868, "energy": 55.506787, "activity_lines": [ 20.148, 22.618909, 24.080191, 24.034172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.950001, "volume": 11500092, "typical_volume": 12392285.85, "trend": 23.889, "fair_value": 21.018486, "relative_strength": -6.304516, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.322374, "energy": 52.955975, "activity_lines": [ 20.142667, 22.254364, 23.880191, 23.911247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }