{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0eca0e18-be58-404e-99cf-a8b4371f1fc3", "symbol": "RAIL3", "name": "Rumo S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.718, "architecture_energy": 25.772, "architecture_maturity": 47.751, "architecture_confidence": 82.253, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.22, "rotation_up": 25.01, "upward_expansion": 18.96, "deceleration": 43.26, "rotation_down": 33.91, "downward_expansion": 57.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.878667, 13.770909, 14.110827, 14.52201 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.59, "trend_reference": 14.876053, "distance_from_trend": -0.086451, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.009494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245398, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.287038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102613, "excess_performance": -0.045564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102613, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62968200, "relative_activity": 1.320893, "balance": 0.323148, "dry_up": 1.035837, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076074, "annualized_volatility": 0.360874, "from_high_reference": -0.21575, "from_low_reference": 0.117599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.876053, "fair_value_reference": 18.009494, 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"typical_volume": 47269775.0, "trend": 14.956117, "fair_value": 18.164164, "relative_strength": -15.352452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.35109, "energy": 29.860594, "activity_lines": [ 13.777333, 13.689455, 14.384865, 14.727876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.57, "volume": 51717400, "typical_volume": 47270875.0, "trend": 14.920864, "fair_value": 18.109228, "relative_strength": -15.510031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.214906, "energy": 28.919758, "activity_lines": [ 13.778667, 13.647091, 14.256834, 14.638449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.44, "volume": 54352700, "typical_volume": 46774445.0, "trend": 14.913949, "fair_value": 18.06084, "relative_strength": -11.328311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.400675, "energy": 20.124911, "activity_lines": [ 13.995333, 13.788364, 14.220243, 14.607426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.59, "volume": 62968200, "typical_volume": 47670925.0, "trend": 14.876053, "fair_value": 18.009494, "relative_strength": -13.287038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.717768, "energy": 25.771545, "activity_lines": [ 13.878667, 13.770909, 14.110827, 14.52201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }