{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ed58e44-32e8-4679-95c0-ba82c040b73b", "symbol": "H1II34", "name": "Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.524, "architecture_energy": 50.202, "architecture_maturity": 66.857, "architecture_confidence": 78.363, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.37, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 45.19, "rotation_down": 36.89, "downward_expansion": 63.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.312, 19.947636, 20.51559, 22.023121 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.559999, "trend_reference": 24.123783, "distance_from_trend": -0.106276, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.524332, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.874207, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.206666, "excess_performance": -0.149618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045445, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098343, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206666, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 27.222222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11, "relative_activity": 0.556962, "balance": 27.222222, "dry_up": 0.151899, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027118, "annualized_volatility": 0.306833, "from_high_reference": -0.300601, "from_low_reference": 0.155586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.123783, "fair_value_reference": 18.524332, "structural_low": 19.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001904, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.008483, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.224752, "worst_return": -0.211039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.100366, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.080149, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.281082, "worst_return": -0.140578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.153218, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173009, "worst_return": 0.10099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.349789, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.225382, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.433387, "worst_return": 0.194655, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.187685, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066943, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041138, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.625852, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079813, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08016, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.870856, "volume": 156, "typical_volume": 235.5, "trend": 13.404492, "fair_value": 12.898029, "relative_strength": -4.839568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", 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18.291282, "relative_strength": -19.889333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.084335, "energy": 89.918396, "activity_lines": [ 19.514667, 20.171349, 22.418504, 23.869549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.1, "trend": 24.935504, "fair_value": 18.326023, "relative_strength": -20.632359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.464265, "energy": 85.696521, "activity_lines": [ 19.396, 19.876432, 21.930815, 23.501865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.68, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 49.65, "trend": 24.82356, "fair_value": 18.362832, "relative_strength": -20.498481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.098695, "energy": 67.673334, "activity_lines": [ 19.477333, 19.741981, 21.517108, 23.1628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 39.95, "trend": 24.669174, "fair_value": 18.398476, "relative_strength": -18.330009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.21813, "energy": 65.895651, "activity_lines": [ 19.534667, 19.668066, 21.150941, 22.830958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.05, "trend": 24.478645, "fair_value": 18.437431, "relative_strength": -18.20519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.629276, "energy": 64.805172, "activity_lines": [ 19.610667, 19.618074, 20.833152, 22.509076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 27.75, "trend": 24.313651, "fair_value": 18.474429, "relative_strength": -19.476907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.921332, "energy": 60.282512, "activity_lines": [ 19.661334, 19.597091, 20.564554, 22.200776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.559999, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 19.75, "trend": 24.123783, "fair_value": 18.524332, "relative_strength": -8.874207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.524288, "energy": 50.202188, "activity_lines": [ 20.312, 19.947636, 20.51559, 22.023121 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }