{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ed7efee-2e06-4cf6-86cb-089d069f7fdd", "symbol": "VNT", "name": "Vontier Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.827, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 17.077, "architecture_energy": 27.991, "architecture_maturity": 95.376, "architecture_confidence": 42.261, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.84, "rotation_up": 47.43, "upward_expansion": 29.85, "deceleration": 47.22, "rotation_down": 16.7, "downward_expansion": 49.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.428667, 31.149818, 30.896107, 32.161141 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.09, "trend_reference": 34.077993, "distance_from_trend": 0.029697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.164524, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029712, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.8147, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165246, "excess_performance": -0.29087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140117, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148147, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156195, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165246, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.45717, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11281565, "relative_activity": 1.423972, "balance": 1.45717, "dry_up": 0.983625, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056981, "annualized_volatility": 0.34868, "from_high_reference": -0.270889, "from_low_reference": 0.288725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.077993, "fair_value_reference": 36.164524, "structural_low": 27.228464, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.036124, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.002016, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.204213, "worst_return": -0.192833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009997, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003887, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.279115, "worst_return": -0.237483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.169118, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.032552, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.513927, "worst_return": -0.318596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 7358485.95, "trend": 34.88429, "fair_value": 36.113812, "relative_strength": -28.986967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.840029, "energy": 45.402353, "activity_lines": [ 29.3, 29.1401, 30.951102, 32.791418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.35, "volume": 7352368, "typical_volume": 7471284.85, "trend": 34.635866, "fair_value": 36.106168, "relative_strength": -25.043413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.363134, "energy": 39.373886, "activity_lines": [ 29.628, 29.367235, 30.711824, 32.498884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.78, "volume": 4884455, "typical_volume": 7460959.05, "trend": 34.393121, "fair_value": 36.107953, "relative_strength": -22.954073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.072949, "energy": 32.439606, "activity_lines": [ 30.027333, 29.667342, 30.563536, 32.250118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.13, "volume": 7653095, "typical_volume": 7626182.5, "trend": 34.206027, "fair_value": 36.125258, "relative_strength": -19.805462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.165559, "energy": 22.487405, "activity_lines": [ 30.818667, 30.162454, 30.579707, 32.10411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.09, "volume": 11281565, "typical_volume": 7922603.05, "trend": 34.077993, "fair_value": 36.164524, "relative_strength": -14.8147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.077335, "energy": 27.990558, "activity_lines": [ 32.428667, 31.149818, 30.896107, 32.161141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }