{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ed83162-9725-44ad-a5e8-157ffd517bf2", "symbol": "ESEE", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 UCITS ETF EUR C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.455, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.089, "architecture_energy": 65.56, "architecture_maturity": 88.502, "architecture_confidence": 64.141, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 52.75, "upward_expansion": 82.47, "deceleration": 71.42, "rotation_down": 29.07, "downward_expansion": 11.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.323, 33.202454, 32.732762, 31.992806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.0, "trend_reference": 31.118333, "distance_from_trend": 0.092604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.529385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281598, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.269654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155088, "excess_performance": -0.015804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.257128, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140108, "relative_activity": 1.990868, "balance": 2.257128, "dry_up": 1.305319, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018597, "annualized_volatility": 0.117922, "from_high_reference": -0.004392, "from_low_reference": 0.241782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.118333, "fair_value_reference": 26.529385, "structural_low": 28.059999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.013603, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.005431, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.080113, "worst_return": -0.1031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.027895, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.00176, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.125749, "worst_return": -0.178268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071939, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.002558, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.196742, "worst_return": -0.089703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 57432.95, "trend": 30.637333, "fair_value": 26.196115, "relative_strength": -3.189498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.571216, "energy": 71.115136, "activity_lines": [ 33.145666, 32.958454, 32.0455, 31.369548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.105, "volume": 17815, "typical_volume": 57810.45, "trend": 30.760833, "fair_value": 26.279032, "relative_strength": -2.807674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.594275, "energy": 64.815476, "activity_lines": [ 33.175, 33.022363, 32.23069, 31.528753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.139999, "volume": 55719, "typical_volume": 59052.4, "trend": 30.880833, "fair_value": 26.36009, "relative_strength": -2.464813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.368509, "energy": 64.403952, "activity_lines": [ 33.180333, 33.067909, 32.401285, 31.682247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.685001, "volume": 153807, "typical_volume": 64241.05, "trend": 30.9905, "fair_value": 26.439994, "relative_strength": -4.337232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.591815, "energy": 57.940098, "activity_lines": [ 33.030666, 33.015727, 32.512309, 31.798645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.0, "volume": 140108, "typical_volume": 70375.35, "trend": 31.118333, "fair_value": 26.529385, "relative_strength": -3.269654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.089227, "energy": 65.559645, "activity_lines": [ 33.323, 33.202454, 32.732762, 31.992806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }