{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ed85b3d-df74-4597-b9ef-416a3bdc0e59", "symbol": "603214", "name": "Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.74, "architecture_energy": 43.728, "architecture_maturity": 94.411, "architecture_confidence": 62.341, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.47, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 42.28, "downward_expansion": 66.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.82, 12.800727, 13.646286, 14.386492 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 15.392407, "distance_from_trend": -0.129441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.91853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.988066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233071, "excess_performance": -0.189867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233071, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549424, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14381081, "relative_activity": 1.173251, "balance": 0.549424, "dry_up": 1.315822, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081782, "annualized_volatility": 0.339504, "from_high_reference": -0.316501, "from_low_reference": 0.153184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.392407, "fair_value_reference": 15.91853, "structural_low": 11.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.006128, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.000214, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.468307, "worst_return": -0.180608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003676, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.029828, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.683686, "worst_return": -0.178189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074954, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.066364, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.038146, "worst_return": -0.227423, "sufficient": true }, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 12.57, "volume": 11169226, "typical_volume": 15268618.7, "trend": 15.948583, "fair_value": 15.986508, "relative_strength": -26.825116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.244868, "energy": 88.297217, "activity_lines": [ 12.741333, 13.426685, 14.445959, 15.160988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.84, "volume": 15890018, "typical_volume": 14588146.85, "trend": 15.838141, "fair_value": 15.971386, "relative_strength": -19.990662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.697766, "energy": 74.169393, "activity_lines": [ 12.726667, 13.187727, 14.218195, 14.960434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.71, "volume": 19061466, "typical_volume": 12921116.45, "trend": 15.639175, "fair_value": 15.948121, "relative_strength": -27.309647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.49964, "energy": 68.085756, "activity_lines": [ 12.392667, 12.809818, 13.910167, 14.694102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.98, "volume": 15182002, "typical_volume": 12462174.55, "trend": 15.508791, "fair_value": 15.932638, "relative_strength": -19.087918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.160025, "energy": 56.707383, "activity_lines": [ 12.563333, 12.741636, 13.749546, 14.522543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 14381081, "typical_volume": 12257463.6, "trend": 15.392407, "fair_value": 15.91853, "relative_strength": -17.988066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.740482, "energy": 43.728212, "activity_lines": [ 12.82, 12.800727, 13.646286, 14.386492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }