{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ed8c8ee-bc65-4679-baf1-0bbc0436424c", "symbol": "OXLC", "name": "Oxford Lane Capital Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 94.869, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.394, "architecture_energy": 69.268, "architecture_maturity": 14.673, "architecture_confidence": 66.621, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.23, "rotation_up": 71.97, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 45.51, "rotation_down": 13.18, "downward_expansion": 14.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.973762, 8.745078, 8.380257, 8.087147 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.2, "trend_reference": 7.94193, "distance_from_trend": 0.158409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.066627, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.155629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.177076, "excess_performance": -0.010378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232154, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.082949, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3282902, "relative_activity": 0.650357, "balance": 1.082949, "dry_up": 0.898448, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061719, "annualized_volatility": 0.409896, "from_high_reference": -0.214305, "from_low_reference": 0.542723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.94193, "fair_value_reference": 11.066627, "structural_low": 5.963481, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001159, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.009079, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.099896, "worst_return": -0.075777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003303, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001384, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.129627, "worst_return": -0.10033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04372, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.202487, "worst_return": -0.234139, "sufficient": true }, 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7.812836, 7.805771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.926433, "volume": 3033399, "typical_volume": 6236471.65, "trend": 8.077594, "fair_value": 11.115025, "relative_strength": -16.042831, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.406762, "energy": 68.50274, "activity_lines": [ 8.542139, 8.219508, 7.951067, 7.859984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.77, "volume": 5523133, "typical_volume": 5898812.15, "trend": 8.051935, "fair_value": 11.10421, "relative_strength": -12.946172, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.830755, "energy": 69.220087, "activity_lines": [ 8.710686, 8.348356, 8.063935, 7.904655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.5, "volume": 4050044, "typical_volume": 5588811.1, "trend": 8.00883, "fair_value": 11.089499, "relative_strength": -13.478016, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.77991, "energy": 63.623479, "activity_lines": [ 8.676741, 8.413583, 8.138577, 7.933562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.16, "volume": 5284818, "typical_volume": 5326376.25, "trend": 7.970605, "fair_value": 11.076214, "relative_strength": -6.579294, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.015648, "energy": 76.855069, "activity_lines": [ 8.838429, 8.589045, 8.265027, 8.007831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.2, "volume": 3282902, "typical_volume": 5047844.35, "trend": 7.94193, "fair_value": 11.066627, "relative_strength": -10.155629, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.394042, "energy": 69.267719, "activity_lines": [ 8.973762, 8.745078, 8.380257, 8.087147 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }