{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0eda1828-ee30-405f-8702-eaa1254fe595", "symbol": "GFSA3", "name": "Gafisa S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.886, "architecture_energy": 93.163, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.666, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 8.66, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 86.7, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.315333, 0.562182, 0.839381, 1.133699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 1.704333, "distance_from_trend": -0.86505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.439292, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.995152, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -95.301024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.937158, "excess_performance": -0.88011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.86505, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.467784, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.995152, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017451, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.95301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.937158, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.039047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38479700, "relative_activity": 3.430924, "balance": 0.039047, "dry_up": 3.070848, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.809365, "annualized_volatility": 0.973916, "from_high_reference": -0.985661, "from_low_reference": 0.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.704333, "fair_value_reference": 47.439292, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": -0.095986, "positive_rate": 0.27451, "directional_follow_through": 0.72549, "median_excess_return": -0.094428, "regime_survival": 0.921569, "best_return": 2.898305, "worst_return": -0.661157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.305882, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.233927, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.971275, "worst_return": -0.726667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.351648, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.419617, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.789906, "worst_return": -0.898263, "sufficient": true }, { 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-93.260665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.112093, "energy": 76.659727, "activity_lines": [ 0.753333, 0.908364, 1.107762, 1.468839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.35, "volume": 42747300, "typical_volume": 8679100.0, "trend": 2.014667, "fair_value": 48.686305, "relative_strength": -93.8538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.948283, "energy": 82.527142, "activity_lines": [ 0.569333, 0.789091, 1.017048, 1.351226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 20918200, "typical_volume": 9421715.0, "trend": 1.857, "fair_value": 48.038359, "relative_strength": -95.034631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.733793, "energy": 94.197027, "activity_lines": [ 0.416, 0.671273, 0.926143, 1.238667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 38479700, "typical_volume": 11215550.0, "trend": 1.704333, "fair_value": 47.439292, "relative_strength": -95.301024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.886214, "energy": 93.162708, "activity_lines": [ 0.315333, 0.562182, 0.839381, 1.133699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }