{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0edf67ef-f460-4cfb-a7f8-1a737037228e", "symbol": "DFIN", "name": "Donnelley Financial Solutions Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.265, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.359, "architecture_energy": 29.078, "architecture_maturity": 7.03, "architecture_confidence": 71.735, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.87, "rotation_up": 63.4, "upward_expansion": 43.14, "deceleration": 30.64, "rotation_down": 14.64, "downward_expansion": 15.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.696, 45.954182, 44.40119, 44.986903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.38, "trend_reference": 46.204, "distance_from_trend": 0.025452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.143141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140782, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.368866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018844, "excess_performance": -0.144469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025452, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021212, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086262, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145121, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.83806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1464417, "relative_activity": 1.022302, "balance": 1.83806, "dry_up": 0.99834, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099742, "annualized_volatility": 0.600102, "from_high_reference": -0.189393, "from_low_reference": 0.312102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.204, "fair_value_reference": 55.143141, "structural_low": 36.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038454, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029812, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.128671, "worst_return": -0.342597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.118914, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.135832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042034, "worst_return": -0.22184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025127, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.13607, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.12067, "worst_return": -0.176158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062592, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114938, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178758, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06686, "active": false }, { 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43.130238, 44.568258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.66, "volume": 1086949, "typical_volume": 1421252.55, "trend": 46.09, "fair_value": 55.13641, "relative_strength": -17.856669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.272314, "energy": 21.943808, "activity_lines": [ 43.100667, 41.289273, 43.098238, 44.473419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.95, "volume": 1651735, "typical_volume": 1449432.8, "trend": 46.222, "fair_value": 55.150769, "relative_strength": -5.900715, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.058629, "energy": 21.703653, "activity_lines": [ 45.817333, 42.992545, 43.583238, 44.722452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.26, "volume": 882166, "typical_volume": 1421120.65, "trend": 46.281667, "fair_value": 55.157372, "relative_strength": -7.632039, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.077413, "energy": 33.644429, "activity_lines": [ 47.203333, 44.259273, 43.906381, 44.853935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.3, "volume": 1722047, "typical_volume": 1446301.1, "trend": 46.337333, "fair_value": 55.146987, "relative_strength": -9.96785, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.727483, "energy": 27.637197, "activity_lines": [ 47.661333, 45.174909, 44.144667, 44.919634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.38, "volume": 1464417, "typical_volume": 1432469.65, "trend": 46.204, "fair_value": 55.143141, "relative_strength": -12.368866, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.359395, "energy": 29.078287, "activity_lines": [ 47.696, 45.954182, 44.40119, 44.986903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }