{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ee4f11b-bbe3-48f9-93a4-b604a02903fd", "symbol": "NOG", "name": "Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.563, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.355, "architecture_energy": 43.723, "architecture_maturity": 14.372, "architecture_confidence": 82.812, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.87, "rotation_up": 53.66, "upward_expansion": 81.64, "deceleration": 49.45, "rotation_down": 17.46, "downward_expansion": 8.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.037453, 0.036371, 0.034281, 0.032637 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.036, "trend_reference": 0.031868, "distance_from_trend": 0.129648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051158, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.296294, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.001282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016949, "excess_performance": -0.034286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129648, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.296294, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081994, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 454350, "relative_activity": 0.724266, "balance": 1.167132, "dry_up": 0.589953, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216197, "annualized_volatility": 1.425698, "from_high_reference": -0.2, "from_low_reference": 2.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.031868, "fair_value_reference": 0.051158, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075758, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065497, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.042254, "worst_return": -0.143443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.125587, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.164752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.084507, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.274077, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.360238, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005634, "worst_return": -0.553788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.637778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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0.053113, "relative_strength": -9.820044, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.604431, "energy": 10.635439, "activity_lines": [ 0.033933, 0.034382, 0.031299, 0.031098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.035, "volume": 600053, "typical_volume": 905639.25, "trend": 0.031705, "fair_value": 0.052658, "relative_strength": -1.433945, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.645413, "energy": 10.361178, "activity_lines": [ 0.034147, 0.034447, 0.031817, 0.031305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 170164, "typical_volume": 745348.35, "trend": 0.031768, "fair_value": 0.052145, "relative_strength": 11.223502, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.392652, "energy": 29.91419, "activity_lines": [ 0.036027, 0.035422, 0.032812, 0.03184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 255800, "typical_volume": 689965.65, "trend": 0.031882, "fair_value": 0.05168, "relative_strength": 9.98666, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.108228, "energy": 44.464111, "activity_lines": [ 0.037573, 0.036305, 0.033761, 0.032371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.036, "volume": 454350, "typical_volume": 627324.55, "trend": 0.031868, "fair_value": 0.051158, "relative_strength": -1.001282, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.355195, "energy": 43.722683, "activity_lines": [ 0.037453, 0.036371, 0.034281, 0.032637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }