{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0eee67f1-be6a-46fe-833b-f958966fdb0d", "symbol": "SPESG", "name": "UBS S&P 500 Scored & Screened UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.499, "architecture_energy": 69.295, "architecture_maturity": 90.282, "architecture_confidence": 66.205, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.63, "rotation_up": 54.71, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.48, "rotation_down": 29.23, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.790667, 48.596454, 47.852904, 46.771355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.0, "trend_reference": 45.509833, "distance_from_trend": 0.098664, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.550356, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297005, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.569002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.151013, "excess_performance": -0.019879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098664, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042644, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044335, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151013, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.626843, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17968, "relative_activity": 0.519304, "balance": 4.626843, "dry_up": 0.60408, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016969, "annualized_volatility": 0.111299, "from_high_reference": -0.005569, "from_low_reference": 0.271133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.509833, "fair_value_reference": 38.550356, "structural_low": 41.029999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.012524, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.007364, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.081169, "worst_return": -0.105772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.030587, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012184, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.102406, "worst_return": -0.181458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.09547, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.036421, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.171059, "worst_return": -0.099881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.66, "volume": 25925, "typical_volume": 35411.0, "trend": 44.791, "fair_value": 38.062183, "relative_strength": -3.449172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.364363, "energy": 84.580777, "activity_lines": [ 48.513999, 48.195363, 46.824833, 45.855268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.095001, "volume": 29130, "typical_volume": 35627.6, "trend": 44.967667, "fair_value": 38.181734, "relative_strength": -3.158211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.579013, "energy": 66.460667, "activity_lines": [ 48.412666, 48.239545, 47.069, 46.06843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.25, "volume": 20873, "typical_volume": 35625.3, "trend": 45.141333, "fair_value": 38.298945, "relative_strength": -2.64077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.384638, "energy": 64.020524, "activity_lines": [ 48.344, 48.279, 47.304143, 46.280193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.064999, "volume": 15634, "typical_volume": 34561.35, "trend": 45.310666, "fair_value": 38.417631, "relative_strength": -3.599569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.7947, "energy": 55.412121, "activity_lines": [ 48.235333, 48.266909, 47.498595, 46.468817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.0, "volume": 17968, "typical_volume": 34600.15, "trend": 45.509833, "fair_value": 38.550356, "relative_strength": -2.569002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.498526, "energy": 69.294563, "activity_lines": [ 48.790667, 48.596454, 47.852904, 46.771355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }