{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0efd6738-c3c5-4319-8b77-6cceb312349d",
    "symbol": "HMWD",
    "name": "HSBC MSCI World UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 90.768,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 84.832,
    "architecture_energy": 67.484,
    "architecture_maturity": 86.687,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.353,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.33,
        "rotation_up": 53.9,
        "upward_expansion": 82.86,
        "deceleration": 71.33,
        "rotation_down": 28.89,
        "downward_expansion": 11.86
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.610723,
        42.449904,
        41.862259,
        41.017081
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 43.48,
    "trend_reference": 40.026211,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.086288,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 33.887959,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283052,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.545416,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.13953,
    "excess_performance": -0.031361,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086288,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040618,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.283052,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037435,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035454,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005877,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.13953,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.078408,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 31080,
      "relative_activity": 0.501668,
      "balance": 2.078408,
      "dry_up": 0.736223,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.016857,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.105848,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001607,
      "from_low_reference": 0.235553
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.026211,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.887959,
      "structural_low": 36.361901,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.009294,
        "positive_rate": 0.65,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.65,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00434,
        "regime_survival": 0.85,
        "best_return": 0.067609,
        "worst_return": -0.082,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.028819,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001904,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.100575,
        "worst_return": -0.15043,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.08544,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005103,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.151251,
        "worst_return": -0.076789,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.063569,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.053348,
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        "worst_return": 0.013061,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-05-03",
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      },
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.503593,
        "volume": 1246,
        "typical_volume": 63850.6,
        "trend": 39.253889,
        "fair_value": 33.367896,
        "relative_strength": -4.611867,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 65559.95,
        "trend": 39.427325,
        "fair_value": 33.475203,
        "relative_strength": -3.790613,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 76.422507,
        "energy": 83.76999,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 42.209778,
        "volume": 52948,
        "typical_volume": 66446.95,
        "trend": 39.579356,
        "fair_value": 33.576969,
        "relative_strength": -3.356357,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.623702,
        "energy": 71.820704,
        "activity_lines": [
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          41.248904,
          40.465616
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.294437,
        "volume": 25837,
        "typical_volume": 63404.2,
        "trend": 39.728906,
        "fair_value": 33.676431,
        "relative_strength": -2.921401,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.128037,
        "energy": 63.885288,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.350493,
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          41.445441,
          40.640782
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.950001,
        "volume": 72581,
        "typical_volume": 63647.65,
        "trend": 39.868467,
        "fair_value": 33.776644,
        "relative_strength": -4.262161,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.491037,
        "energy": 57.562972,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.225108,
          42.205646,
          41.590536,
          40.784079
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.48,
        "volume": 31080,
        "typical_volume": 61953.35,
        "trend": 40.026211,
        "fair_value": 33.887959,
        "relative_strength": -3.545416,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.832467,
        "energy": 67.484042,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}