{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f0290e1-c0ee-43f4-97b7-5ea8caa724a9", "symbol": "4104", "name": "Excelsior Medical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.881, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.972, "architecture_energy": 11.166, "architecture_maturity": 18.509, "architecture_confidence": 67.812, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.22, "rotation_up": 31.12, "upward_expansion": 24.96, "deceleration": 48.52, "rotation_down": 17.91, "downward_expansion": 44.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.866669, 70.460001, 70.44439, 70.965119 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.300003, "trend_reference": 71.771568, "distance_from_trend": -0.00657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.818074, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.061316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012744, "excess_performance": -0.454116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032485, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041668, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012744, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.947334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 764708, "relative_activity": 0.583266, "balance": 0.947334, "dry_up": 0.62921, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02449, "annualized_volatility": 0.118909, "from_high_reference": -0.131032, "from_low_reference": 0.059435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.771568, "fair_value_reference": 73.818074, "structural_low": 67.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014454, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.011174, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.047072, "worst_return": -0.022989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039429, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.045811, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.098572, "worst_return": 0.00346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.046673, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102373, "worst_return": 0.017616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.180714, "energy": 31.358839, "activity_lines": [ 69.873333, 69.86909, 70.562215, 71.306963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.900002, "volume": 783615, "typical_volume": 1380798.25, "trend": 72.274685, "fair_value": 73.790999, "relative_strength": -32.799807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.451498, "energy": 19.329216, "activity_lines": [ 70.293334, 70.069091, 70.523542, 71.20466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.800003, "volume": 974344, "typical_volume": 1340040.95, "trend": 72.047735, "fair_value": 73.792749, "relative_strength": -31.182251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.819595, "energy": 18.554173, "activity_lines": [ 70.586668, 70.2, 70.488836, 71.109519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.400002, "volume": 777111, "typical_volume": 1316288.15, "trend": 71.890474, "fair_value": 73.803971, "relative_strength": -32.46836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.70256, "energy": 17.8092, "activity_lines": [ 70.606668, 70.25091, 70.419647, 71.003214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 71.300003, "volume": 764708, "typical_volume": 1311079.0, "trend": 71.771568, "fair_value": 73.818074, "relative_strength": -33.061316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.972093, "energy": 11.165919, "activity_lines": [ 70.866669, 70.460001, 70.44439, 70.965119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }