{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f03c45d-9085-4d4e-b6ee-7343e5fc21af", "symbol": "300673", "name": "Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.371, "architecture_energy": 45.708, "architecture_maturity": 61.354, "architecture_confidence": 86.832, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.06, "rotation_up": 20.44, "upward_expansion": 6.2, "deceleration": 56.82, "rotation_down": 50.91, "downward_expansion": 74.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.589333, 12.746545, 13.517549, 14.150688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.25, "trend_reference": 15.153645, "distance_from_trend": -0.125623, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.633238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.002474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.240587, "excess_performance": -0.247986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125623, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.603996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17306100, "relative_activity": 1.22597, "balance": 0.603996, "dry_up": 1.201591, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103752, "annualized_volatility": 0.424361, "from_high_reference": -0.319636, "from_low_reference": 0.202359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.153645, "fair_value_reference": 14.633238, "structural_low": 11.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.006088, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.008204, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.198319, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.052819, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.037705, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.424242, "worst_return": -0.231456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02644, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.271278, "worst_return": -0.246253, "sufficient": 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-72.481718, "energy": 56.225512, "activity_lines": [ 12.946667, 13.307555, 14.100075, 14.755726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.04, "volume": 16428971, "typical_volume": 13510241.35, "trend": 15.470129, "fair_value": 14.637653, "relative_strength": -32.635242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.991522, "energy": 61.672364, "activity_lines": [ 12.319333, 12.813574, 13.756248, 14.45393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.82, "volume": 19740118, "typical_volume": 13933921.65, "trend": 15.300128, "fair_value": 14.634346, "relative_strength": -20.044315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.484863, "energy": 50.902369, "activity_lines": [ 12.402667, 12.723412, 13.608192, 14.282954 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.25, "volume": 17306100, "typical_volume": 14116249.15, "trend": 15.153645, "fair_value": 14.633238, "relative_strength": -21.002474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.371414, "energy": 45.707914, "activity_lines": [ 12.589333, 12.746545, 13.517549, 14.150688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }