{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f151d71-443d-48dc-8916-346684be2d57", "symbol": "300959", "name": "Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.112, "architecture_energy": 37.03, "architecture_maturity": 45.567, "architecture_confidence": 52.434, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.64, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 17.54, "deceleration": 64.6, "rotation_down": 67.81, "downward_expansion": 44.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.132666, 114.695091, 128.44319, 121.296323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 102.919998, "trend_reference": 112.448334, "distance_from_trend": -0.084735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.08703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.802861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.695106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14216, "excess_performance": 0.13476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.802861, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.325823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15833195, "relative_activity": 0.92569, "balance": 1.325823, "dry_up": 0.884833, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.28971, "annualized_volatility": 1.027869, "from_high_reference": -0.555786, "from_low_reference": 1.39795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.448334, "fair_value_reference": 57.08703, "structural_low": 71.110001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.106002, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.094779, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.086921, "worst_return": -0.210777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.223511, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.170498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.019173, "worst_return": -0.336896, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02928, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.142146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.327852, "worst_return": -0.049384, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.169355, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.242715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": 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"direction": -0.569247, "energy": 21.549242, "activity_lines": [ 124.141332, 144.421273, 135.876095, 124.604882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 94.860001, "volume": 18781866, "typical_volume": 16700075.75, "trend": 112.851667, "fair_value": 56.301003, "relative_strength": -3.417807, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.946602, "energy": 35.512625, "activity_lines": [ 111.083333, 132.925091, 133.375381, 123.422516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.150002, "volume": 14200253, "typical_volume": 17007507.0, "trend": 112.174334, "fair_value": 56.647775, "relative_strength": -8.582253, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.776371, "energy": 40.940981, "activity_lines": [ 100.451333, 121.684182, 130.273905, 121.893377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.919998, "volume": 15833195, "typical_volume": 17104217.55, "trend": 112.448334, "fair_value": 57.08703, "relative_strength": -0.695106, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.112267, "energy": 37.030137, "activity_lines": [ 98.132666, 114.695091, 128.44319, 121.296323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }