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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.867, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.839, "architecture_energy": 84.551, "architecture_maturity": 4.533, "architecture_confidence": 64.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.07, "rotation_up": 85.03, "upward_expansion": 96.45, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.13, "downward_expansion": 18.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 827.440674, 818.156348, 810.952009, 809.981205 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 834.0, "trend_reference": 808.399461, "distance_from_trend": 0.031668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 693.619465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.940429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.044066, "excess_performance": 0.098733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024013, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029404, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044066, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.030428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1035, "relative_activity": 0.090228, "balance": 0.030428, "dry_up": 0.046574, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013417, "annualized_volatility": 0.119037, "from_high_reference": -0.007237, "from_low_reference": 0.131195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 808.399461, "fair_value_reference": 693.619465, "structural_low": 771.361309, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.00679, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.000393, "regime_survival": 0.65625, "best_return": 0.108696, "worst_return": -0.150753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008148, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007554, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.126955, "worst_return": -0.073976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058046, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.044102, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.140024, "worst_return": -0.090755, 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804.079585, 805.366475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 825.0, "volume": 577, "typical_volume": 11415.05, "trend": 806.286127, "fair_value": 689.881302, "relative_strength": 2.545591, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.19943, "energy": 48.821244, "activity_lines": [ 815.831999, 808.517049, 805.939519, 806.644789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 831.400024, "volume": 456, "typical_volume": 11420.25, "trend": 807.399461, "fair_value": 691.735789, "relative_strength": 2.5834, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.231807, "energy": 78.154713, "activity_lines": [ 822.249341, 813.364415, 808.362313, 808.265041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 834.0, "volume": 1035, "typical_volume": 11471.0, "trend": 808.399461, "fair_value": 693.619465, "relative_strength": 2.940429, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.838946, "energy": 84.550706, "activity_lines": [ 827.440674, 818.156348, 810.952009, 809.981205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }