{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f19dbd6-1541-4f9b-9a56-fa7dfad0c709", "symbol": "1338", "name": "Hiroca Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.189, "architecture_energy": 71.766, "architecture_maturity": 10.235, "architecture_confidence": 76.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.73, "rotation_up": 8.68, "upward_expansion": 14.89, "deceleration": 37.27, "rotation_down": 79.57, "downward_expansion": 92.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.973333, 15.528136, 15.866093, 15.953035 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.7, "trend_reference": 16.38688, "distance_from_trend": -0.102941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.380362, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.442767, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.067178, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.22038, "excess_performance": -0.566113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.442767, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005799, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068112, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.271855, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 345010, "relative_activity": 0.426543, "balance": 1.271855, "dry_up": 0.659556, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066169, "annualized_volatility": 0.374607, "from_high_reference": -0.365733, "from_low_reference": 0.065388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.38688, "fair_value_reference": 26.380362, "structural_low": 13.797793, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.009793, "positive_rate": 0.418605, "directional_follow_through": 0.55814, "median_excess_return": -0.037377, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.149051, "worst_return": -0.200521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.044117, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.129336, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.210904, "worst_return": -0.203333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.114785, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.185385, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.093985, "worst_return": -0.200237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.55731, "energy": 14.608512, "activity_lines": [ 16.354677, 16.489027, 16.232629, 16.420498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.5, "volume": 677323, "typical_volume": 931331.25, "trend": 16.918325, "fair_value": 26.768958, "relative_strength": -40.7188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.613594, "energy": 26.230562, "activity_lines": [ 16.022271, 16.31564, 16.189712, 16.31861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.25, "volume": 342002, "typical_volume": 906258.2, "trend": 16.762138, "fair_value": 26.633685, "relative_strength": -41.975325, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.670401, "energy": 38.641587, "activity_lines": [ 15.66, 16.097989, 16.120023, 16.210976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.65, "volume": 769597, "typical_volume": 892805.5, "trend": 16.585951, "fair_value": 26.496966, "relative_strength": -45.102802, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.005261, "energy": 65.084174, "activity_lines": [ 15.233333, 15.78591, 15.992356, 16.074709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 14.7, "volume": 345010, "typical_volume": 808852.0, "trend": 16.38688, "fair_value": 26.380362, "relative_strength": -43.067178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.189387, "energy": 71.765636, "activity_lines": [ 14.973333, 15.528136, 15.866093, 15.953035 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }