{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f1a5098-528a-4228-a6bb-99f287c399ab", "symbol": "002917", "name": "Shenzhen King Explorer Science and Technology Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.905, "architecture_energy": 54.997, "architecture_maturity": 37.752, "architecture_confidence": 93.347, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 19.63, "upward_expansion": 8.99, "deceleration": 55.45, "rotation_down": 57.9, "downward_expansion": 79.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.172667, 10.391556, 11.402486, 12.017588 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.6, "trend_reference": 12.773322, "distance_from_trend": -0.170145, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.414634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.039189, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266436, "excess_performance": -0.273836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170145, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071368, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24485549, "relative_activity": 0.952581, "balance": 0.487359, "dry_up": 0.71606, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105619, "annualized_volatility": 0.402232, "from_high_reference": -0.306736, "from_low_reference": 0.12766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.773322, "fair_value_reference": 11.414634, "structural_low": 9.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.051327, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.021699, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.233097, "worst_return": -0.121345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0666, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007908, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.754717, "worst_return": -0.263746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022576, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.133605, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.966667, "worst_return": -0.158886, "sufficient": true }, { 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10.66537, 11.548804, 12.347765, 12.780424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.81, "volume": 17567283, "typical_volume": 26297235.15, "trend": 13.084322, "fair_value": 11.427806, "relative_strength": -28.208898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.046796, "energy": 86.756097, "activity_lines": [ 10.305434, 11.111211, 12.054862, 12.562597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.63, "volume": 17299084, "typical_volume": 25826324.3, "trend": 12.967322, "fair_value": 11.415177, "relative_strength": -29.063076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.286534, "energy": 84.865852, "activity_lines": [ 10.018558, 10.705692, 11.766626, 12.339738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.24, "volume": 14271800, "typical_volume": 25477209.25, "trend": 12.865988, "fair_value": 11.411927, "relative_strength": -22.570738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.968384, "energy": 73.088439, "activity_lines": [ 10.037333, 10.477542, 11.558389, 12.163781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.6, "volume": 24485549, "typical_volume": 25704434.8, "trend": 12.773322, "fair_value": 11.414634, "relative_strength": -23.039189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.904664, "energy": 54.997384, "activity_lines": [ 10.172667, 10.391556, 11.402486, 12.017588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }