{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f1db7e9-f4b4-4fbe-9d00-ffe02b941b4b", "symbol": "GLDU", "name": "BetaPro Gold Bullion 2x Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.834, "architecture_energy": 56.82, "architecture_maturity": 73.513, "architecture_confidence": 76.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.14, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 66.54, "rotation_down": 53.98, "downward_expansion": 76.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.215334, 31.129637, 33.682333, 36.46471 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.060001, "trend_reference": 40.198333, "distance_from_trend": -0.152701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.508974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.448808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.078157, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296426, "excess_performance": -0.416848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.448808, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.485869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123900, "relative_activity": 0.97207, "balance": 0.408598, "dry_up": 1.061509, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073558, "annualized_volatility": 0.485567, "from_high_reference": -0.45153, "from_low_reference": 0.416216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.198333, "fair_value_reference": 23.508974, "structural_low": 28.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.000945, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.014986, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.13082, "worst_return": -0.099812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047738, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.022357, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.32526, "worst_return": -0.092147, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.177943, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203141, "worst_return": 0.066667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037838, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00216, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.836458, "worst_return": -0.142725, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.213997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075188, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.330688, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.440748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137332, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073432, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.35, "volume": 24400, "typical_volume": 33190.0, "trend": 11.290667, "fair_value": 11.47891, "relative_strength": -2.084687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 31.185333, 33.002545, 36.428762, 39.098817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.360001, "volume": 158800, "typical_volume": 152095.0, "trend": 41.143333, "fair_value": 23.119487, "relative_strength": -28.164065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.155539, "energy": 89.439612, "activity_lines": [ 30.484, 31.992182, 35.446524, 38.317419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.860001, "volume": 79700, "typical_volume": 140705.0, "trend": 40.749667, "fair_value": 23.23891, "relative_strength": -27.095618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.734161, "energy": 78.034177, "activity_lines": [ 30.178001, 31.301637, 34.630286, 37.589463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.709999, "volume": 178800, "typical_volume": 140225.0, "trend": 40.454, "fair_value": 23.35891, "relative_strength": -27.076818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.97701, "energy": 67.138111, "activity_lines": [ 29.946667, 30.744727, 33.903571, 36.877226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.060001, "volume": 123900, "typical_volume": 127460.0, "trend": 40.198333, "fair_value": 23.508974, "relative_strength": -19.078157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.834392, "energy": 56.820096, "activity_lines": [ 31.215334, 31.129637, 33.682333, 36.46471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }