{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f1edd08-a3d4-4b12-a69c-ae8a3dbe28f0", "symbol": "OPTER", "name": "Opter AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.811, "architecture_energy": 27.972, "architecture_maturity": 6.796, "architecture_confidence": 63.486, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.33, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 20.01, "deceleration": 54.39, "rotation_down": 49.96, "downward_expansion": 47.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.88, 74.145454, 75.794062, 75.10967 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 74.0, "trend_reference": 74.743966, "distance_from_trend": -0.009954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.856639, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.286684, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001264, "excess_performance": -0.060231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148021, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001264, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23036, "relative_activity": 0.981443, "balance": 1.205142, "dry_up": 0.669459, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039917, "annualized_volatility": 0.298649, "from_high_reference": -0.389706, "from_low_reference": 0.168648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.743966, "fair_value_reference": 86.856639, "structural_low": 63.321026, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004371, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011024, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.047619, "worst_return": -0.040909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.024336, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.042501, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.176084, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.182565, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.587302, "worst_return": -0.219955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 27731.0, "trend": 75.548893, "fair_value": 86.643714, "relative_strength": -19.67161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.180173, "energy": 37.233872, "activity_lines": [ 73.359999, 75.254545, 76.102896, 75.332611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.800003, "volume": 15947, "typical_volume": 25612.2, "trend": 75.302806, "fair_value": 86.721892, "relative_strength": -18.230962, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.097945, "energy": 36.424882, "activity_lines": [ 73.693333, 74.905454, 76.095427, 75.284296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.599998, "volume": 7759, "typical_volume": 23252.6, "trend": 75.003888, "fair_value": 86.786519, "relative_strength": -19.411095, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.31202, "energy": 33.866555, "activity_lines": [ 73.72, 74.439999, 75.938256, 75.174437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.0, "volume": 23036, "typical_volume": 23471.55, "trend": 74.743966, "fair_value": 86.856639, "relative_strength": -19.286684, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.81127, "energy": 27.971898, "activity_lines": [ 73.88, 74.145454, 75.794062, 75.10967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }