{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f25bed6-9445-4547-8358-a19a23c2e459", "symbol": "SMIN", "name": "Smiths Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.297, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.065, "architecture_energy": 60.879, "architecture_maturity": 9.026, "architecture_confidence": 80.658, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.66, "rotation_up": 65.64, "upward_expansion": 85.53, "deceleration": 46.58, "rotation_down": 15.48, "downward_expansion": 14.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2648.133333, 2616.690909, 2572.7136, 2547.534974 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2698.0, "trend_reference": 2538.508431, "distance_from_trend": 0.062829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2020.306321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335441, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.351559, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043376, "excess_performance": -0.007859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335441, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062334, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003516, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.886797, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6735913, "relative_activity": 1.519851, "balance": 1.886797, "dry_up": 1.159359, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042431, "annualized_volatility": 0.309208, "from_high_reference": -0.020397, "from_low_reference": 0.292227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2538.508431, "fair_value_reference": 2020.306321, "structural_low": 2087.868641, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.000911, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016581, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.103438, "worst_return": -0.216716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.040809, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.040847, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.140233, "worst_return": -0.106724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.052656, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010395, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.169185, "worst_return": -0.102697, 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2540.034059, 2528.954429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2642.0, "volume": 4614381, "typical_volume": 4607058.55, "trend": 2530.503271, "fair_value": 2013.526338, "relative_strength": -1.487332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.613355, "energy": 37.1822, "activity_lines": [ 2617.0, 2592.927273, 2554.36466, 2536.728733 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2698.0, "volume": 6735913, "typical_volume": 4431957.05, "trend": 2538.508431, "fair_value": 2020.306321, "relative_strength": 0.351559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.064952, "energy": 60.878886, "activity_lines": [ 2648.133333, 2616.690909, 2572.7136, 2547.534974 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }