{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f260662-6442-4eb6-ad9b-1c71ee99ef7f", "symbol": "ORCL", "name": "Oracle Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.941, "architecture_energy": 62.371, "architecture_maturity": 15.267, "architecture_confidence": 83.909, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.97, "rotation_up": 10.17, "upward_expansion": 12.3, "deceleration": 40.27, "rotation_down": 69.87, "downward_expansion": 85.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.867333, 140.147698, 158.395441, 159.92818 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 147.02, "trend_reference": 161.710026, "distance_from_trend": -0.090842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 160.765408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.165103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033141, "excess_performance": -0.092484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0855, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.55927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162891813, "relative_activity": 1.121935, "balance": 0.55927, "dry_up": 1.294623, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163522, "annualized_volatility": 0.718464, "from_high_reference": -0.571405, "from_low_reference": 0.284017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.710026, "fair_value_reference": 160.765408, "structural_low": 114.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.05673, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.028837, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.315445, "worst_return": -0.280576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.117098, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.049338, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.498036, "worst_return": -0.30188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.419832, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.226952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.024052, "worst_return": -0.288988, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111342, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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"energy": 69.46386, "activity_lines": [ 139.571602, 159.954258, 168.231542, 166.725867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.99, "volume": 162944354, "typical_volume": 146003410.4, "trend": 165.55754, "fair_value": 160.402777, "relative_strength": -46.821781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.573524, "energy": 78.927949, "activity_lines": [ 128.670666, 149.206901, 163.305677, 163.287555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 129.87, "volume": 173440867, "typical_volume": 143202970.3, "trend": 163.402779, "fair_value": 160.524841, "relative_strength": -39.717946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.970007, "energy": 74.598956, "activity_lines": [ 127.306205, 142.562563, 159.975132, 160.985133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 147.02, "volume": 162891813, "typical_volume": 145188276.05, "trend": 161.710026, "fair_value": 160.765408, "relative_strength": -33.165103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.941301, "energy": 62.371175, "activity_lines": [ 132.867333, 140.147698, 158.395441, 159.92818 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }