{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f2af115-5696-4744-98d8-06b04cfa8310", "symbol": "5864", "name": "Concord International Securities Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.466, "architecture_energy": 19.726, "architecture_maturity": 76.25, "architecture_confidence": 75.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.42, "rotation_up": 16.01, "upward_expansion": 45.85, "deceleration": 87.77, "rotation_down": 41.01, "downward_expansion": 28.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.766667, 34.475156, 35.060978, 32.495115 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.200001, "trend_reference": 28.849487, "distance_from_trend": 0.185463, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.789806, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.165954, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.561402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.692691, "excess_performance": 0.251319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.185463, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.365417, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.165954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252721, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.195614, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.692691, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.258591, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20451099, "relative_activity": 0.666741, "balance": 1.258591, "dry_up": 0.6015, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184437, "annualized_volatility": 0.847783, "from_high_reference": -0.283133, "from_low_reference": 2.073927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.849487, "fair_value_reference": 15.789806, "structural_low": 19.89299, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011799, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.030753, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.31338, "worst_return": -0.19469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069837, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.053647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.732394, "worst_return": -0.220106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.19269, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.160882, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.126761, "worst_return": -0.221045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.235915, 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36.217931, 38.631907, 35.233801, 31.823913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.5, "volume": 17057568, "typical_volume": 30447954.2, "trend": 27.72411, "fair_value": 15.630825, "relative_strength": 14.777948, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.547198, "energy": 24.189598, "activity_lines": [ 33.773334, 37.078943, 35.15246, 32.040553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 21713017, "typical_volume": 30290177.65, "trend": 28.230176, "fair_value": 15.690998, "relative_strength": 5.185894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.085666, "energy": 23.429891, "activity_lines": [ 31.363333, 35.199619, 34.864425, 32.109965 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 34.200001, "volume": 20451099, "typical_volume": 30673211.65, "trend": 28.849487, "fair_value": 15.789806, "relative_strength": 19.561402, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.465662, "energy": 19.726269, "activity_lines": [ 31.766667, 34.475156, 35.060978, 32.495115 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }