{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f2f86b0-ab7a-4c8c-8d16-c70891831cd0", "symbol": "HAYD", "name": "Haydale plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.833, "architecture_energy": 87.312, "architecture_maturity": 71.862, "architecture_confidence": 87.996, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 8.88, "upward_expansion": 21.85, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 79.82, "downward_expansion": 97.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002615, 0.002773, 0.002972, 0.00311 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.00263, "trend_reference": 0.003386, "distance_from_trend": -0.223272, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003807, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.3092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.742955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366265, "excess_performance": -0.4175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.3092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.44743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366265, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.1716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13437907, "relative_activity": 0.539987, "balance": 0.1716, "dry_up": 0.963752, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.457801, "from_high_reference": -0.723158, "from_low_reference": 0.052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003386, "fair_value_reference": 0.003807, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.341463, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.060089, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.275873, "worst_return": -0.448276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.146341, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.191637, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.460177, "worst_return": -0.592834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.25794, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.324005, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.696429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": -77.154453, "energy": 75.547755, "activity_lines": [ 0.003013, 0.003128, 0.003186, 0.00336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00265, "volume": 36470886, "typical_volume": 29527838.5, "trend": 0.003616, "fair_value": 0.003951, "relative_strength": -46.065536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.039763, "energy": 86.332178, "activity_lines": [ 0.002865, 0.003029, 0.003127, 0.003293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00265, "volume": 8796410, "typical_volume": 29011725.45, "trend": 0.003543, "fair_value": 0.003901, "relative_strength": -45.635112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.176009, "energy": 90.653123, "activity_lines": [ 0.002759, 0.002942, 0.003075, 0.003231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 37228993, "typical_volume": 29893127.25, "trend": 0.003462, "fair_value": 0.003858, "relative_strength": -48.20656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.024798, "energy": 93.208024, "activity_lines": [ 0.002644, 0.002838, 0.003014, 0.003163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00263, "volume": 13437907, "typical_volume": 24885609.15, "trend": 0.003386, "fair_value": 0.003807, "relative_strength": -44.742955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.832575, "energy": 87.311535, "activity_lines": [ 0.002615, 0.002773, 0.002972, 0.00311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }