{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f393c45-2201-45e3-96ab-e0041eaa7d68", "symbol": "DOO", "name": "BRP Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.913, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.073, "architecture_energy": 24.184, "architecture_maturity": 8.478, "architecture_confidence": 44.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.03, "rotation_up": 38.68, "upward_expansion": 37.12, "deceleration": 29.91, "rotation_down": 18.12, "downward_expansion": 47.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.384666, 86.251563, 84.323411, 85.969587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 90.629997, "trend_reference": 90.092248, "distance_from_trend": 0.005969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.994585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091999, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.525967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.146515, "excess_performance": -0.266937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173426, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146515, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.247195, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 870300, "relative_activity": 0.621952, "balance": 3.247195, "dry_up": 1.009287, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0553, "annualized_volatility": 0.539476, "from_high_reference": -0.190763, "from_low_reference": 0.350469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.092248, "fair_value_reference": 82.994585, "structural_low": 67.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.041895, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.021301, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.119534, "worst_return": -0.23285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041787, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.053899, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.248075, "worst_return": -0.366397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.091031, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.157305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162888, "worst_return": -0.173662, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.283237, "energy": 14.939585, "activity_lines": [ 84.91336, 84.077293, 83.497063, 86.606216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.199997, "volume": 1496100, "typical_volume": 1377005.0, "trend": 90.753668, "fair_value": 83.296986, "relative_strength": -14.490016, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.035263, "energy": 12.754541, "activity_lines": [ 84.974653, 84.558462, 83.54194, 86.219186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.620003, "volume": 1910400, "typical_volume": 1430530.0, "trend": 90.365104, "fair_value": 83.116516, "relative_strength": -12.686894, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.627915, "energy": 9.857355, "activity_lines": [ 85.456, 85.133708, 83.740097, 85.952497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.629997, "volume": 870300, "typical_volume": 1399305.0, "trend": 90.092248, "fair_value": 82.994585, "relative_strength": -11.525967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.07345, "energy": 24.183765, "activity_lines": [ 87.384666, 86.251563, 84.323411, 85.969587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }