{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f3f4156-e315-4d1e-b1b7-e34fd17e2254", "symbol": "XSX6", "name": "Xtrackers Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.543, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.293, "architecture_energy": 77.901, "architecture_maturity": 38.967, "architecture_confidence": 80.601, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 65.74, "upward_expansion": 89.37, "deceleration": 50.25, "rotation_down": 21.38, "downward_expansion": 16.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 169.424001, 168.249092, 165.256953, 162.734366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 172.119995, "trend_reference": 160.114, "distance_from_trend": 0.074984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 134.420513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280459, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.86239, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093242, "excess_performance": -0.07765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040553, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061228, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.575689, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14481, "relative_activity": 1.057216, "balance": 1.575689, "dry_up": 1.208395, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018109, "annualized_volatility": 0.142406, "from_high_reference": -0.004396, "from_low_reference": 0.247246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 160.114, "fair_value_reference": 134.420513, "structural_low": 143.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011035, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.006322, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.072529, "worst_return": -0.058035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022752, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.02963, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.080076, "worst_return": -0.043605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.07027, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.034184, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.151538, "worst_return": -0.126263, "sufficient": true }, { 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164.341455, 161.031905, 159.449161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 166.880005, "volume": 17754, "typical_volume": 13396.95, "trend": 157.834666, "fair_value": 132.936282, "relative_strength": -5.207313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.361457, "energy": 81.414607, "activity_lines": [ 167.020002, 165.146911, 161.793524, 160.074753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 166.919998, "volume": 27894, "typical_volume": 14093.45, "trend": 158.405333, "fair_value": 133.292179, "relative_strength": -3.724356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.778875, "energy": 77.959754, "activity_lines": [ 167.190668, 165.791274, 162.530667, 160.660903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 167.880005, "volume": 12165, "typical_volume": 13961.4, "trend": 158.996, "fair_value": 133.644872, "relative_strength": -2.919665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.434268, "energy": 75.260008, "activity_lines": [ 167.526669, 166.453093, 163.335144, 161.272172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 169.100006, "volume": 11667, "typical_volume": 13762.5, "trend": 159.56, "fair_value": 134.023077, "relative_strength": -2.827971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.036512, "energy": 60.457386, "activity_lines": [ 168.094671, 167.139639, 164.192002, 161.924044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 172.119995, "volume": 14481, "typical_volume": 13697.3, "trend": 160.114, "fair_value": 134.420513, "relative_strength": -3.86239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.292786, "energy": 77.901443, "activity_lines": [ 169.424001, 168.249092, 165.256953, 162.734366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }