{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f4766a3-30ba-41c8-bab5-b0fe5bd22a13", "symbol": "4130", "name": "Darb Saudi Investment Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.649, "architecture_energy": 26.674, "architecture_maturity": 33.661, "architecture_confidence": 51.483, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.58, "rotation_up": 44.88, "upward_expansion": 44.46, "deceleration": 39.65, "rotation_down": 24.9, "downward_expansion": 9.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.21, 2.194727, 2.166333, 2.148731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.31, "trend_reference": 2.157333, "distance_from_trend": 0.070766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.6566, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130467, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.680892, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017621, "excess_performance": 0.049451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031283, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130467, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017621, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939813, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37178457, "relative_activity": 1.280988, "balance": 0.939813, "dry_up": 1.27208, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053613, "annualized_volatility": 0.284388, "from_high_reference": -0.295732, "from_low_reference": 0.235294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.157333, "fair_value_reference": 2.6566, "structural_low": 1.87, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.039823, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.0542, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.195084, "worst_return": -0.310714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051882, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.091302, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.252213, "worst_return": -0.393571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.142858, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.102202, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.106195, "worst_return": -0.407857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.046484, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.040918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.36169, "worst_return": -0.455085, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-04-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042773, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082802, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.250001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105405, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.380682, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074419, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 2.313718, "volume": 8933288, "typical_volume": 11935903.8, "trend": 2.080894, "fair_value": 2.867802, "relative_strength": 12.479049, "stage": 1, "regime": 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66084042, "typical_volume": 26909409.9, "trend": 2.159333, "fair_value": 2.657609, "relative_strength": -9.035618, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.712002, "energy": 25.674473, "activity_lines": [ 2.180667, 2.161818, 2.145, 2.138774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.16, "volume": 20627975, "typical_volume": 27374928.0, "trend": 2.156333, "fair_value": 2.656624, "relative_strength": -6.4926, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.830797, "energy": 9.139604, "activity_lines": [ 2.172, 2.165455, 2.149048, 2.138817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.31, "volume": 37178457, "typical_volume": 29023274.4, "trend": 2.157333, "fair_value": 2.6566, "relative_strength": -1.680892, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.648688, "energy": 26.673815, "activity_lines": [ 2.21, 2.194727, 2.166333, 2.148731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }