{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f48cc7b-9b1f-45a3-88be-d18b63e88d1a", "symbol": "XBIO", "name": "X Bioscience Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.466, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.385, "architecture_energy": 29.234, "architecture_maturity": 26.403, "architecture_confidence": 71.502, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.52, "rotation_up": 47.18, "upward_expansion": 75.19, "deceleration": 55.36, "rotation_down": 18.78, "downward_expansion": 6.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.083333, 0.081636, 0.080714, 0.078366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.077667, "distance_from_trend": 0.030043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.611754, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.969369, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -85.412776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161871, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.969369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00498, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.854128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05069, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.135927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11419300, "relative_activity": 0.118126, "balance": 9.135927, "dry_up": 0.300568, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 0.885317, "from_high_reference": -0.972125, "from_low_reference": 1.14719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.077667, "fair_value_reference": 2.611754, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.106667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.094968, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.82353, "worst_return": -0.252631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.287171, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.315563, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": -0.125, "worst_return": -0.798319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.348684, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.409721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.334821, "worst_return": -0.92437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 81430800, "typical_volume": 118174895.0, "trend": 0.080667, "fair_value": 2.707634, "relative_strength": -85.93397, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.876979, "energy": 8.881885, "activity_lines": [ 0.080667, 0.080727, 0.078905, 0.07757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.09, "volume": 12093000, "typical_volume": 112571730.0, "trend": 0.08, "fair_value": 2.676572, "relative_strength": -85.305757, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.189845, "energy": 21.285876, "activity_lines": [ 0.084667, 0.082182, 0.080286, 0.078172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 11280800, "typical_volume": 109136055.0, "trend": 0.077, "fair_value": 2.643736, "relative_strength": -86.126903, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.317954, "energy": 30.637286, "activity_lines": [ 0.084, 0.081818, 0.080524, 0.078172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 11419300, "typical_volume": 96670290.0, "trend": 0.077667, "fair_value": 2.611754, "relative_strength": -85.412776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.38512, "energy": 29.234279, "activity_lines": [ 0.083333, 0.081636, 0.080714, 0.078366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }