{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f5e33e3-c311-4882-87c5-78479c36424b", "symbol": "WEED", "name": "ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.195, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.009, "architecture_energy": 14.714, "architecture_maturity": 10.9, "architecture_confidence": 70.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.76, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 40.96, "deceleration": 77.79, "rotation_down": 42.08, "downward_expansion": 37.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.163627, 19.814089, 20.244595, 19.625069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.2331, "trend_reference": 18.98211, "distance_from_trend": 0.013222, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.372629, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.66485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092169, "excess_performance": -0.033456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013222, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035105, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17711, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126593, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293148, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623616, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88901, "relative_activity": 0.843678, "balance": 0.623616, "dry_up": 0.540266, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124511, "annualized_volatility": 0.552805, "from_high_reference": -0.380517, "from_low_reference": 0.512988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.98211, "fair_value_reference": 23.372629, "structural_low": 13.4328, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064224, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.051788, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.672133, "worst_return": -0.221951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005854, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.542912, "worst_return": -0.153243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076029, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.15385, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.57821, "worst_return": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.5616, "volume": 67492, "typical_volume": 109666.45, "trend": 19.10432, "fair_value": 23.427538, "relative_strength": -4.901474, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.716023, "energy": 16.673553, "activity_lines": [ 20.188833, 20.803045, 20.372641, 19.62909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.9414, "volume": 32690, "typical_volume": 106799.4, "trend": 19.059703, "fair_value": 23.405725, "relative_strength": -7.695229, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.36973, "energy": 15.088355, "activity_lines": [ 19.671553, 20.447078, 20.33102, 19.618579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.9402, "volume": 38635, "typical_volume": 104444.85, "trend": 19.013007, "fair_value": 23.381138, "relative_strength": -8.976659, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.922276, "energy": 14.754832, "activity_lines": [ 19.316113, 20.098685, 20.279993, 19.610869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.2331, "volume": 88901, "typical_volume": 105373.15, "trend": 18.98211, "fair_value": 23.372629, "relative_strength": -10.66485, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.008764, "energy": 14.713544, "activity_lines": [ 19.163627, 19.814089, 20.244595, 19.625069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }