{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f616655-7365-418d-b982-7523ae470226", "symbol": "E50ESG", "name": "UBS EURO STOXX 50 ESG UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.232, "architecture_energy": 60.848, "architecture_maturity": 47.179, "architecture_confidence": 71.186, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.63, "rotation_up": 54.38, "upward_expansion": 80.61, "deceleration": 65.75, "rotation_down": 26.25, "downward_expansion": 9.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.567667, 23.455546, 22.971319, 22.532059 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.145, "trend_reference": 22.094121, "distance_from_trend": 0.092825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.033506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.338897, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.256984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10592, "excess_performance": -0.064972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043486, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.338897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072113, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0244, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10592, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.304854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141306, "relative_activity": 1.268502, "balance": 3.304854, "dry_up": 1.092196, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024356, "annualized_volatility": 0.178448, "from_high_reference": -0.002067, "from_low_reference": 0.290552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.094121, "fair_value_reference": 18.033506, "structural_low": 19.426001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.000851, "positive_rate": 0.547619, "directional_follow_through": 0.547619, "median_excess_return": -0.00365, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.10417, "worst_return": -0.126914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.020526, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.008534, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.101216, "worst_return": -0.097868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.084012, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.007414, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.164021, "worst_return": -0.199023, "sufficient": true }, { 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23.144091, 22.542876, 22.210517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 129374, "typical_volume": 140386.5, "trend": 21.928657, "fair_value": 17.904728, "relative_strength": -2.687896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.487125, "energy": 53.736619, "activity_lines": [ 23.277001, 23.203455, 22.66031, 22.297885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.42, "volume": 129804, "typical_volume": 112965.45, "trend": 22.006646, "fair_value": 17.967326, "relative_strength": -2.419902, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.320574, "energy": 48.487567, "activity_lines": [ 23.309334, 23.273455, 22.787838, 22.394101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.145, "volume": 141306, "typical_volume": 111395.95, "trend": 22.094121, "fair_value": 18.033506, "relative_strength": -2.256984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.231897, "energy": 60.848035, "activity_lines": [ 23.567667, 23.455546, 22.971319, 22.532059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }