{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f646f26-b805-4e1d-bd28-e6721aebc8ea", "symbol": "301186", "name": "Nantong Chaoda Equipment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.808, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.296, "architecture_energy": 63.654, "architecture_maturity": 16.546, "architecture_confidence": 68.428, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.56, "rotation_up": 17.15, "upward_expansion": 22.28, "deceleration": 44.06, "rotation_down": 71.65, "downward_expansion": 63.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.834666, 34.975708, 39.584214, 40.194746 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.669998, "trend_reference": 39.936328, "distance_from_trend": -0.106828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.490946, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.924189, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012209, "excess_performance": -0.019609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.714686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9148955, "relative_activity": 0.650061, "balance": 0.451263, "dry_up": 0.884041, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141316, "annualized_volatility": 0.56227, "from_high_reference": -0.376228, "from_low_reference": 0.393359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.936328, "fair_value_reference": 29.490946, "structural_low": 25.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037064, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.042712, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116164, "worst_return": -0.058216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.110852, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249522, "worst_return": -0.027818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037007, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099689, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155857, "worst_return": -0.081843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.722635, "energy": 40.572642, "activity_lines": [ 38.757324, 41.513156, 43.468769, 42.19714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.07, "volume": 15181086, "typical_volume": 14087305.55, "trend": 40.004024, "fair_value": 29.397655, "relative_strength": -14.548933, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.087297, "energy": 64.548966, "activity_lines": [ 35.918001, 39.06368, 42.355569, 41.619324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.860001, "volume": 15686501, "typical_volume": 14419542.0, "trend": 40.016855, "fair_value": 29.438488, "relative_strength": -9.734152, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.440341, "energy": 64.792652, "activity_lines": [ 34.365334, 37.358245, 41.437791, 41.158419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.299999, "volume": 9751426, "typical_volume": 14479707.95, "trend": 39.890074, "fair_value": 29.436383, "relative_strength": -17.93587, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.688107, "energy": 74.520111, "activity_lines": [ 32.182, 35.397095, 40.194899, 40.467009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.669998, "volume": 9148955, "typical_volume": 14074002.4, "trend": 39.936328, "fair_value": 29.490946, "relative_strength": -4.924189, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.295972, "energy": 63.653586, "activity_lines": [ 32.834666, 34.975708, 39.584214, 40.194746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }