{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f71b61f-7e93-4867-a916-571d36469ab8", "symbol": "002145", "name": "Tinergy Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.047, "architecture_energy": 20.209, "architecture_maturity": 53.995, "architecture_confidence": 61.011, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.55, "rotation_up": 22.88, "upward_expansion": 14.74, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 40.01, "downward_expansion": 62.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.474667, 4.488539, 4.484581, 4.584767 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.49, "trend_reference": 4.738383, "distance_from_trend": -0.052419, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.484176, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.050017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.141491, "excess_performance": -0.148891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052419, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044757, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141491, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.959242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239905078, "relative_activity": 1.116892, "balance": 0.959242, "dry_up": 1.165515, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070149, "annualized_volatility": 0.355868, "from_high_reference": -0.274637, "from_low_reference": 0.076739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.738383, "fair_value_reference": 4.484176, "structural_low": 4.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.014463, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.021492, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.441668, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.064378, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.007195, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.354167, "worst_return": -0.242955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.152042, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041067, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.367647, "worst_return": -0.268117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 26.027319, "activity_lines": [ 4.531333, 4.486445, 4.542133, 4.667103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.28, "volume": 247940324, "typical_volume": 263356637.9, "trend": 4.780049, "fair_value": 4.508292, "relative_strength": -13.338683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.893277, "energy": 31.495951, "activity_lines": [ 4.45, 4.451044, 4.502935, 4.633594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.41, "volume": 265184510, "typical_volume": 246165193.1, "trend": 4.764716, "fair_value": 4.499191, "relative_strength": -10.82503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.998841, "energy": 32.616079, "activity_lines": [ 4.411333, 4.445615, 4.482119, 4.60972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.64, "volume": 248366812, "typical_volume": 223960192.6, "trend": 4.752049, "fair_value": 4.491754, "relative_strength": -4.563551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.920638, "energy": 28.257367, "activity_lines": [ 4.467333, 4.483985, 4.48854, 4.601674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.49, "volume": 239905078, "typical_volume": 214797040.35, "trend": 4.738383, "fair_value": 4.484176, "relative_strength": -12.050017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.047015, "energy": 20.208734, "activity_lines": [ 4.474667, 4.488539, 4.484581, 4.584767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }