{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f79afa1-1123-4b9d-bf6f-56df3ac1a361", "symbol": "SEMD", "name": "iShares MSCI EM SRI UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.425, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.259, "architecture_energy": 17.486, "architecture_maturity": 24.549, "architecture_confidence": 78.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.08, "rotation_up": 25.31, "upward_expansion": 49.29, "deceleration": 81.0, "rotation_down": 39.07, "downward_expansion": 29.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.207067, 7.263608, 7.300975, 7.216131 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.402, "trend_reference": 7.118433, "distance_from_trend": 0.039836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.526585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.922059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055754, "excess_performance": -0.060908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039836, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055754, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 495707, "relative_activity": 2.519071, "balance": 0.662279, "dry_up": 2.33988, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04262, "annualized_volatility": 0.250814, "from_high_reference": -0.044986, "from_low_reference": 0.275203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.118433, "fair_value_reference": 5.526585, "structural_low": 6.328923, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.000172, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001461, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.105041, "worst_return": -0.078642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011695, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.014668, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.093187, "worst_return": -0.056662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019286, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.045953, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.155728, "worst_return": -0.046519, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041079, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011056, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074405, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": 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234293, "typical_volume": 185497.5, "trend": 7.074759, "fair_value": 5.495503, "relative_strength": -3.806379, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.281763, "energy": 15.429233, "activity_lines": [ 7.199733, 7.302308, 7.287977, 7.195977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.08, "volume": 440157, "typical_volume": 196851.8, "trend": 7.094846, "fair_value": 5.509457, "relative_strength": -5.109436, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.067784, "energy": 15.104878, "activity_lines": [ 7.144533, 7.250694, 7.280426, 7.196315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.402, "volume": 495707, "typical_volume": 196781.65, "trend": 7.118433, "fair_value": 5.526585, "relative_strength": -1.922059, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.259413, "energy": 17.486427, "activity_lines": [ 7.207067, 7.263608, 7.300975, 7.216131 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }