{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f79b49e-42cb-49e2-b725-0e947b12790c", "symbol": "IESG", "name": "iShares Core MSCI Australia ESG ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.205, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.587, "architecture_energy": 48.918, "architecture_maturity": 8.13, "architecture_confidence": 53.642, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.53, "rotation_up": 59.25, "upward_expansion": 53.14, "deceleration": 30.62, "rotation_down": 23.51, "downward_expansion": 18.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.451334, 31.22986, 30.943024, 30.829662 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.450001, "trend_reference": 30.857118, "distance_from_trend": 0.051621, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.042931, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117311, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.353493, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049519, "excess_performance": -0.014187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001343, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032025, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004448, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049519, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204229, "relative_activity": 1.54524, "balance": 0.683186, "dry_up": 1.93397, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02233, "annualized_volatility": 0.141388, "from_high_reference": -0.031778, "from_low_reference": 0.14373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.857118, "fair_value_reference": 29.042931, "structural_low": 28.372089, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00115, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007002, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.038187, "worst_return": -0.04488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000786, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074827, "worst_return": -0.034805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.100714, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037077, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.119909, "worst_return": -0.025807, "sufficient": false }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.52, "volume": 296256, "typical_volume": 126572.2, "trend": 30.826641, "fair_value": 28.944327, "relative_strength": -2.221721, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.443854, "energy": 7.493554, "activity_lines": [ 30.856121, 30.830445, 30.690746, 30.696582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.26, "volume": 195648, "typical_volume": 128787.3, "trend": 30.820617, "fair_value": 28.990498, "relative_strength": -2.033788, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.803809, "energy": 16.80106, "activity_lines": [ 30.960666, 30.932298, 30.763343, 30.724541 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.450001, "volume": 204229, "typical_volume": 132166.5, "trend": 30.857118, "fair_value": 29.042931, "relative_strength": -1.353493, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.586747, "energy": 48.918436, "activity_lines": [ 31.451334, 31.22986, 30.943024, 30.829662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }