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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.369, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.333, "architecture_energy": 61.326, "architecture_maturity": 12.25, "architecture_confidence": 89.698, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.86, "rotation_up": 11.22, "upward_expansion": 13.0, "deceleration": 38.97, "rotation_down": 66.8, "downward_expansion": 86.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 779.333333, 812.2, 884.572713, 897.806177 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 787.0, "trend_reference": 902.652332, "distance_from_trend": -0.128125, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 646.452805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.165971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023535, "excess_performance": -0.464907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011697, "read": "Rising" }, 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.563873, "energy": 50.043031, "activity_lines": [ 825.266667, 881.327962, 927.790831, 924.47408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 722.0, "volume": 6317687, "typical_volume": 9142727.25, "trend": 910.883071, "fair_value": 639.618102, "relative_strength": -37.662957, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.00067, "energy": 61.855832, "activity_lines": [ 783.866667, 842.239804, 907.847597, 912.107498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 809.0, "volume": 4044775, "typical_volume": 8714348.05, "trend": 906.787394, "fair_value": 643.101271, "relative_strength": -31.45504, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.789644, "energy": 64.696779, "activity_lines": [ 781.8, 826.931302, 897.118649, 905.534396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 787.0, "volume": 2918105, "typical_volume": 8416399.05, "trend": 902.652332, "fair_value": 646.452805, "relative_strength": -35.165971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.332997, "energy": 61.326245, "activity_lines": [ 779.333333, 812.2, 884.572713, 897.806177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }