{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f7e06dc-098f-41d5-b752-e4762c4f376a", "symbol": "IBN", "name": "ICICI Bank Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 72.193, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.062, "architecture_energy": 60.905, "architecture_maturity": 15.568, "architecture_confidence": 51.292, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.1, "rotation_up": 69.53, "upward_expansion": 62.17, "deceleration": 22.99, "rotation_down": 19.39, "downward_expansion": 20.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.712266, 29.328178, 28.354102, 28.120351 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.22, "trend_reference": 28.253439, "distance_from_trend": 0.069604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.304172, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067687, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.905215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030789, "excess_performance": -0.156414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019681, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116583, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089052, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149683, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.004792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26217480, "relative_activity": 0.764056, "balance": 1.004792, "dry_up": 0.934698, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039153, "annualized_volatility": 0.257576, "from_high_reference": -0.094803, "from_low_reference": 0.204853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.253439, "fair_value_reference": 28.304172, "structural_low": 25.0819, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023179, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.000603, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.06202, "worst_return": -0.006098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.068159, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09152, "worst_return": 0.042839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162888, "worst_return": -0.021083, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established", "return": -0.070431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087969, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051166, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050651, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.533135, "volume": 21127425, "typical_volume": 18870229.4, "trend": 21.70829, "fair_value": 18.417704, "relative_strength": -3.807284, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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34.600107, "activity_lines": [ 28.653041, 27.72384, 27.346059, 27.734115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.763124, "volume": 51489520, "typical_volume": 34050377.95, "trend": 28.315742, "fair_value": 28.142, "relative_strength": -13.316757, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.304161, "energy": 45.801514, "activity_lines": [ 28.875474, 28.014424, 27.471218, 27.759803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.516917, "volume": 28521178, "typical_volume": 34574534.35, "trend": 28.302305, "fair_value": 28.178115, "relative_strength": -9.117367, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.436973, "energy": 61.12757, "activity_lines": [ 29.16163, 28.399459, 27.678438, 27.837298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.268959, "volume": 33263978, "typical_volume": 34759409.45, "trend": 28.276271, "fair_value": 28.213141, "relative_strength": -8.783248, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.164062, "energy": 54.570434, "activity_lines": [ 29.250005, 28.684376, 27.866771, 27.899663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.745038, "volume": 40288711, "typical_volume": 34943629.95, "trend": 28.268105, "fair_value": 28.256474, "relative_strength": -7.713178, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.546753, "energy": 55.361889, "activity_lines": [ 29.408476, 28.997326, 28.095355, 27.994422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.22, "volume": 26217480, "typical_volume": 34313571.4, "trend": 28.253439, "fair_value": 28.304172, "relative_strength": -8.905215, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.062025, "energy": 60.904886, "activity_lines": [ 29.712266, 29.328178, 28.354102, 28.120351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }