{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f85305e-0c1a-401e-949c-24bb23abd222", "symbol": "603706", "name": "Xinjiang East Universe Gas Co.Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.191, "architecture_energy": 31.432, "architecture_maturity": 22.81, "architecture_confidence": 68.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.08, "rotation_up": 19.44, "upward_expansion": 8.01, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 44.31, "downward_expansion": 67.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.846, 18.87929, 19.57787, 19.796914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.15, "trend_reference": 20.071775, "distance_from_trend": -0.045924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.267557, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.784154, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100094, "excess_performance": -0.05689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.217624, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7249684, "relative_activity": 1.092579, "balance": 1.217624, "dry_up": 1.121195, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07711, "annualized_volatility": 0.333425, "from_high_reference": -0.239174, "from_low_reference": 0.123826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.071775, "fair_value_reference": 17.267557, "structural_low": 17.040001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.046783, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": 0.038795, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.258595, "worst_return": -0.097625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037379, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.06816, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.279245, "worst_return": -0.051171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115298, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.120395, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.176932, "worst_return": -0.038869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011213, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051685, "active": false 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failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.987503, "energy": 64.444176, "activity_lines": [ 18.754667, 19.691981, 20.018075, 20.131329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.040001, "volume": 7050437, "typical_volume": 8354798.15, "trend": 20.145775, "fair_value": 17.176022, "relative_strength": -2.941141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.291195, "energy": 63.272916, "activity_lines": [ 18.77, 19.441047, 19.911726, 20.059043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.16, "volume": 10728078, "typical_volume": 7208803.05, "trend": 20.097108, "fair_value": 17.203698, "relative_strength": -8.320821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.863642, "energy": 50.675488, "activity_lines": [ 18.57, 19.071691, 19.732615, 19.930928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 4730046, "typical_volume": 6719036.75, "trend": 20.080108, "fair_value": 17.234464, "relative_strength": -4.522811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.170152, "energy": 37.970821, "activity_lines": [ 18.728001, 18.92359, 19.642314, 19.856921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.15, "volume": 7249684, "typical_volume": 6635385.95, "trend": 20.071775, "fair_value": 17.267557, "relative_strength": -5.784154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.191335, "energy": 31.431651, "activity_lines": [ 18.846, 18.87929, 19.57787, 19.796914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }