{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0f85fc3d-194e-4fc6-bac9-2e5bf87847b9", "symbol": "COST", "name": "Costco Wholesale Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 69.616, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.309, "architecture_energy": 28.095, "architecture_maturity": 18.014, "architecture_confidence": 77.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.19, "rotation_up": 21.59, "upward_expansion": 7.63, "deceleration": 55.96, "rotation_down": 42.71, "downward_expansion": 69.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 943.023205, 944.21041, 963.134906, 972.662631 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 947.82, "trend_reference": 980.468485, "distance_from_trend": -0.033299, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 861.057703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.231897, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051903, "excess_performance": -0.239356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033299, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051903, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934282, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9784912, "relative_activity": 0.93333, "balance": 0.934282, "dry_up": 0.991609, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054529, "annualized_volatility": 0.180168, "from_high_reference": -0.135595, "from_low_reference": 0.126116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 980.468485, "fair_value_reference": 861.057703, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.212037, "energy": 47.062044, "activity_lines": [ 935.237008, 945.754681, 968.877226, 976.288195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 951.89, "volume": 10873230, "typical_volume": 10387136.95, "trend": 979.616584, "fair_value": 858.449813, "relative_strength": -8.879868, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.94278, "energy": 38.46337, "activity_lines": [ 939.836612, 944.658455, 966.06874, 974.714024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 947.82, "volume": 9784912, "typical_volume": 10483866.8, "trend": 980.468485, "fair_value": 861.057703, "relative_strength": -13.231897, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.309275, "energy": 28.094684, "activity_lines": [ 943.023205, 944.21041, 963.134906, 972.662631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }